\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
Core view
Q4 has a brilliant performance and has tenacity throughout the year. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan, an increase of 9.46% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.836 billion yuan, an increase of 3.04% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.603 billion yuan after deducting non profits, a decrease of 1.66% and an EPS of 1.57 yuan / share, with a proposed 10 dividend of 6.2 yuan (including tax). The steady increase in performance was mainly due to the small increase in cement sales and the income from securities investment and financial management, Affected by the rising cement price, investment income and net income of fair value, Q4 had a revenue of 2.472 billion yuan, an increase of 4.24% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 524 million yuan, an increase of 29.56%.
The 10000 ton line contributed to the growth of sales volume and the high and stable profitability. In 2021, the company sold 1.79 million tons of cement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, mainly due to the complete release of the second-line capacity of Wenfu 10000 ton line project. The annual cement ton revenue of the company increased by 27.3 yuan to 366.7 yuan year-on-year, of which the ton revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was about 475 yuan / ton (full caliber), an increase of 136 yuan / ton year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the significant rise of cement price under the background of double control of energy consumption, power limitation and rising coal price; Affected by the rise in coal prices, the annual cost per ton increased by 25.6 yuan to 227.6 yuan, and the gross profit per ton increased by 1.7 yuan to 139.1 yuan, maintaining a historically high level. In terms of expense control, the expense rate of the company increased slightly by 0.69pct to 8.20% during 2021, including the increase of management expense rate by 0.88pct to 7.52%, which is mainly caused by the amortization of share-based payment expenses, the increase of amortization of long-term deferred expenses and the increase of shutdown losses caused by dual control of energy consumption. During the reporting period, the company’s cash position remained abundant, and the net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.17%, mainly due to the increase of funds occupied by inventories due to high coal prices and the increase of cement inventory at the end of the period. By the end of last year, the company’s asset liability ratio had reached 15.03%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.06pct, and the asset debt structure remained optimized.
The industrial chain layout was optimized and the transformation of green environmental protection was accelerated. In terms of industrial chain, the company continued to optimize the layout of mixing plants and achieved 770000 m3 of concrete sales, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. In terms of green environmental protection, the company accelerated the upgrading and transformation, acquired 60% equity of huita environmental protection, achieved a new breakthrough in environmental protection disposal (solid waste) business, with an annual revenue of 2.617 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 68.6%; Build green mines, digital mines, green factories, intelligent factories and first-class safety standard enterprises; In response to the call of the dual carbon policy, accelerate the construction of projects such as photovoltaic power generation and coordinated disposal of solid waste in cement kilns, and strengthen energy consumption control and technological transformation.
Risk warning: the increase of supply exceeds expectations; The implementation of the project is not as expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
Investment suggestion: regional demand is supported and the “buy” rating is maintained. The company is the largest cement enterprise in eastern Guangdong, with outstanding advantages in geographical location, resource layout, cost scale and so on. The annual planned investment of key projects in Guangdong Province this year is about 900 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over last year’s plan, of which infrastructure accounts for 55.5%. The cement demand has good support, and the company is expected to benefit significantly. It is expected that the EPS in 202224 will be 1.60/1.69/1.77 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to PE of 6.4/6.1/5.8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
