Following the drop limit of Yong’an Futures (600927. SH) on December 31 last year, the share price of Yong’an futures fell again on January 4, the first trading day of 2022.
The stock opened sharply lower in early trading and rebounded once. After the limit was set at about 10 o’clock, the limit board was not opened all day. As of the close, the decline was 9.99% to 33.77 yuan / share, and the total market value shrank from above 50 billion yuan to 49.15 billion yuan.
A research report attracted market attention. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the non bank team said in the research report that it gave Yongan futures a “sell” rating. This is also the first “sell” rating in the history of Yong’an futures.
The reason given by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is that the valuation of Yong’an futures is not cheap. It is expected that the valuation of the company will tend to be rational in the next year, with a target price of 22 yuan, which has nearly 35% downward space compared with the current price.
In response to the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) downgrade of Yong’an futures, the reporter of Huaxia times called the Secretary Office of Yong’an futures, and relevant people said it was inconvenient to respond. The reporter sent an interview letter, and as of the time of publication, he had not received a reply.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) sing empty
Yong’an futures was listed at the issue price of RMB 17.97 on December 23, 2021. After listing, it rose the limit for six consecutive days, and hit the highest price of RMB 4.169 on December 30, with a market value of more than RMB 60 billion at one time.
According to the research report released on January 3, 2022, Yong’an futures is the third futures company listed on the A-share main board, with the first net profit and net assets in the industry. From the time dimension of more than one year, the business model and valuation may be consistent with that of securities companies. At present, the company will be given an additional 50% valuation premium. It is expected that the reasonable valuation range in the next year will be 22.5 billion yuan – 32 billion yuan.
The research report gives Yong’an futures a “sell” rating, with a target price of 22 yuan / share, compared with the closing price of 37.52 yuan on December 31 (market value of 54.61 billion yuan), which means that Yong’an futures has more than 40% room for decline.
In terms of performance, in the first half of this year, the overall net profit of the futures industry was 6.092 billion yuan, and Yong’an futures accounted for 12.15% of the total net profit of the industry, ranking the leading in the industry. Yongan futures achieved a net profit of 740 million yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 80.24%. The Non Bank Research Report of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) makes a more comprehensive and detailed analysis of Yong’an futures, including the company’s share price performance, business model, valuation logic, industry opportunities and challenges, risk factors and so on.
Yong’an futures was founded in September 1992. The major shareholder of the company is Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) . The actual controller is Zhejiang Provincial Department of finance, which indirectly controls 70.84% of the voting rights of Yong’an futures. The company is mainly engaged in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management and fund sales.
The main business carried out by Yong’an capital, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yong’an futures, and its subsidiaries is futures risk management business, mainly including basis trade, OTC derivatives business, market making business, etc. As a subsidiary of the company’s risk management business, Yong’an capital is an operation platform for the company to carry out innovative businesses such as OTC derivatives. Yong’an futures has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, new Yong’an financial holding, in Hong Kong, covering overseas futures brokerage business, asset management business, securities business and other fields to meet customers’ diversified financial service needs.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the non bank team believes that with the intensification of brokerage business competition in the futures industry and the continuous decline of rates, the traditional channel services of futures companies are gradually “imported”, and it has become an industry consensus to explore diversified value-added and innovative businesses. Risk management business is the current industry growth point, and Yong’an futures leads the transformation of industry structure. The net profit of the company’s risk management business increased from 14.7% in 2019 to 29.7% in the first half of 2021.
This is similar to the head brokerage. On the one hand, the company improves the return on capital through business transformation. Capital is an important driving force, and the company’s transformation is effective; On the other hand, through the layout of light capital businesses such as wealth management and asset management, capital savings have achieved relatively limited results so far. In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the non bank team believes that there is a risk of periodic fluctuation in the capital market, interest income faces a downward risk of interest rate, there is a risk of policy uncertainty in the exchange’s fee reduction income, the company’s investment income faces a large fluctuation or loss risk, and the risk management business faces multiple potential risk tests; The company’s performance is highly related to the capital market, and there is a possibility that the performance may significantly exceed the expectation, resulting in the decline of the stock price and failure to reach the target price.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that since 2018, the brokerage market share of Yong’an futures company has generally been in a downward trend. The market share of the exchange in the previous period decreased from 2.3% in 2018 to 1.4% in the first half of 2021; The market share in Zhengshang exchange decreased from 2.4% in 2018 to 1.7% in the first half of 2021; The market share in Dachang exchange decreased from 3.0% in 2018 to 1.8% in the first half of 2021; The market share of CICC decreased from 2.2% in 2018 to 1.85% in the first half of 2021. At the same time, the overall level of the company’s commission rate is also under great pressure. The downward trend is consistent with the industry, but the absolute level is significantly lower than that of peer companies.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the non bank team believes that considering the time of the next year, the target price of the next year corresponds to the target price in January 2023, meeting the starting point of medium and long-term valuation logic. At present, the company’s outstanding shares are 145 million, with a relatively small circulation volume and obvious characteristics of secondary new shares in the short term. On December 23, 2022, there are 530 million outstanding shares, and the circulation volume will expand significantly. It is expected that the company’s valuation will tend to be rational in the next year. The company’s share price has the risk of falling more than 10% relative to the market, which meets our “sell” rating standard and is given a “sell” rating for the first time, The target price per share corresponding to the upper valuation limit is 22 yuan.
investors sent a document questioning the empty singing
On December 23 last year, Yong’an futures officially landed on the A-share main board. On the first day of listing, the stock opened at 21.56 yuan, up 19.98% from the issue price of 17.97 yuan. The temporary suspension was triggered during the session. As of the closing of the day, Yong’an futures reported 25.88 yuan, an increase of 44.02% on the first day, a turnover rate of 1.86% and a turnover of 69.694 million yuan.
In the following five trading days, the stock rose by the limit, closing at 28.47 yuan, 31.32 yuan, 34.45 yuan, 37.90 yuan and 41.69 yuan respectively. As of December 30, the stock closed at 41.69 yuan, with a total market value of 60.68 billion yuan. With the continuous rise of stock prices, Yong’an futures also issued an announcement of abnormal stock trading fluctuations twice last week to remind investors to pay attention to the trading risks in the secondary market, make rational decisions and invest prudently.
As the actual controller of Yong’an futures, in response to the inquiry letter on the abnormal fluctuation of the stock, Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance said that there were no major matters that should be disclosed but not disclosed by Yong’an futures, including major asset restructuring, acquisition of listed companies, business restructuring, etc., and the above-mentioned matters were not planned in the next three months.
However, on December 31, the market ended the continuous upward trend of the share price of Yong’an futures, which was actually opened under the trading limit. Since then, the market has changed dramatically. Yong’an futures touched the limit at the end of the trading, with a turnover of more than 3.6 billion yuan, and finally closed at 37.52 yuan / share, with the total market value sharply reduced to 54.6 billion yuan.
Affected by this, the trend of Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) and Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) on December 31 was also weak. Among them, the day Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) closed at 13.58 yuan / share, down 4.63%; Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) closed at 24.64 yuan / share, down 3.75%.
However, in the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) bar, some users who claimed to be loss making shareholders of Yong’an futures denounced Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : as a head securities firm, it was shameless to not rate Yong’an futures before and after it was listed. Instead, after changing hands at a high level of Yong’an futures, they maliciously short rated it. Who do these so-called researchers serve and do things so badly, It is hoped that leeks of Yong’an futures with losses will be enthusiastically supported, and researchers who maliciously short will be found.
Mr. Tao, a senior futures person in Shanghai, told the Huaxia times: “the subsidiary of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is CITIC futures. This time Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) To sell ratings to peers who have just listed, this routine is a little incomprehensible, and the valuation is so low that CITIC is completely short. However, even as a secondary new share, the recent sharp shock in the share price of Yong’an futures has divided the views of the market. ”
For the target valuation level of Yong’an futures, there is differentiation in the Research Report of securities companies.
Huajin securities was the first to give a “buy” rating. Huajin Securities believes that Yongan futures is at the forefront of comparable companies in terms of indicators and has significant advantages in capital, brand and customer reserves. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.801 billion yuan, 2.316 billion yuan and 2.783 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, 29% and 20%; Roe exceeds 17%; Give 2022e 4.50x target Pb, deduce the target price of 43.60 yuan, and give a “Buy-A” rating.
Huaxin securities gives a “recommended” rating. It is predicted that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 14.5%, 16.3% and 11.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.156, 1.701 and 2.238 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.79, 1.17 and 1.54 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 22.6, 15.4 and 11.7 times respectively. The valuation has obvious advantages over the same industry.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) is rated “better than the big market”. Its view is that Yong’an futures, as the leader of China’s futures industry, is expected to obtain sustained growth momentum in the rapid development of the industry. With the improvement of industry concentration, the company’s leading advantage will be further consolidated. The company is given 25-27x2021epe, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 19.81-21.39 yuan.
(Huaxia times)
