\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
The market demand for HPV vaccine continues to be high, and the market is far from reaching its peak
The company is the sole agent of methadone's four price and nine price HPV vaccines. Although HPV vaccine has been listed in China for many years, due to the huge stock population and the limited supply of HPV vaccine, the demand of HPV vaccine market in China is still in short supply. At the same time, the government provided free HPV vaccine for school-age girls, which further stimulated the market demand. At present, the penetration rate of HPV vaccination among school-age women in China is only about 7%. According to the penetration rate of 30% / 45% / 60%, China still needs 280 / 4.5 / 620 million HPV vaccines, which is far from reaching the peak.
The company launched a leveraged employee stock ownership plan to demonstrate confidence in future development
In January 2022, the company issued the draft of the company's employee stock ownership plan for common prosperity (2022), which plans to launch the employee stock ownership plan to no more than 2000 qualified employees (including 14 directors, supervisors and senior managers), with a maximum scale of 3.2 billion yuan. The employee stock ownership plan of the company is the third time, and the number of shares held and the amount raised are the highest. We believe that the employee stock ownership plan, on the one hand, is conducive to improving employee cohesion and mobilizing employee enthusiasm. On the other hand, through the employee stock ownership plan, we can attract and retain excellent management talents and business backbone, and promote the long-term and stable development of the company. At the same time, the most important thing is that the large-scale employee stock ownership plan also shows the strong confidence of the company in the future development.
Moshadong's supply of HPV vaccine has a significant trend, and the company's performance growth is expected to accelerate
According to the data disclosed by the Chinese people's Procuratorate, as of March 15, 2022, 12 batches of tetravalent HPV vaccine have been issued, which is estimated to be about 2-2.5 million; There are 20 batches of nine valent HPV vaccine, which is estimated to be about 4-4.5 million. It is estimated that in 2022, about 6-7 million pieces of Q1 four price and nine price will be issued in batches, with a year-on-year increase of about 100% - 130%. At present, the centralized vaccination of covid-19 vaccine in China has weakened for routine vaccination, and the rhythm of vaccine batch issuance has returned to normal. Therefore, we predict that the supply of HPV vaccine in China by MSD will increase significantly compared with last year. In addition, according to media reports, in January this year, MSD said it would significantly increase the supply of HPV vaccine to China in 2022 to meet the urgent health needs of Chinese women. For the company, as the exclusive agent of moshadong's four price and nine price HPV vaccines in China, the HPV vaccine business revenue accounts for more than 80% of the company. The increase of moshadong's supply of HPV vaccines in China will significantly improve the company's revenue and profit level. At the same time, considering that the HPV vaccine market is in short supply, the company's performance is highly uncertain. We predict that the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 35%. Corresponding to the current valuation, peg is less than 1, and the current valuation of the company is underestimated
Investment advice
Regardless of the contribution of covid-19 vaccine, considering that the supply of HPV vaccine in China is in short supply, we maintain the profit forecast for 2021 and raise the company's profit forecast for 20222023. From 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue increased from 26.016/30.622 billion yuan to 29.312/37.690 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 6.276/7.635 billion yuan to 6.789/8.936 billion yuan. From 2021 to 2023, EPS was 3.08/4.24/5.59 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.15% / 37.89% / 31.62%, corresponding to the closing price of 125.24 yuan / share on March 15, 2022, and PE was 41 / 30 / 22 times. Considering that the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is 35%, corresponding to the current peg 1, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The sales of core vaccine products were lower than expected; Covid-19 vaccine sales are less than expected risk; Risk of not continuing to renew the contract in cooperation with MSD; The progress of vaccine product development was lower than expected.
