\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 303 Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.724 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 448.56%; the company released its annual report of 2021, and the company realized an operating revenue of 10.832 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 132.23%; The total profit was 6.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 450.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 448.56%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 2.527 billion yuan, an increase of 51.52% year-on-year and a decrease of 33.37% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.95% and a month on month decrease of 45.91%. The performance decline was mainly due to the fact that the sales of 2021q4 polysilicon material was only 11000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons compared with 2021q3. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 65.65%, a year-on-year increase of 32.02pct, and in 2021q4, the gross profit margin was 60.32%, a year-on-year increase of 16.34pct and a month on month decrease of 14.52pct; In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 52.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 30.47 PCT; in 2021q4, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 49.49%, with a year-on-year increase of 16.74 PCT and a month on month decrease of 11.48 PCT.
The profit of silicon material increased greatly in 2021, and the profit and stable volume increased in 2022: the output of silicon material in 2021 was 86600 tons, with a same increase of 12%, the sales volume was 75000 tons, with a same increase of 0.7%, and the net profit per ton was 76000 yuan / ton, with a same increase of 446%, of which the sales volume in 2021q4 was 12000 tons, and the net profit per ton was 95000 yuan / ton. We expect that the company’s output in 2022 will be 12000125000 tons, with an increase of 39-44% at the same time. Considering the inventory transfer, we expect that the sales volume will be 1 Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) 35000 tons, with an increase of 73-79%, of which the output in 2022q1 will be 3100032000 tons, the sales volume will be 3700038000 tons, with an increase of 72-77% at the same time and a ring increase of 218228%. Due to the strong price of silicon material in 2022q1, we expect that the net profit per ton will remain about 110000 yuan / ton. Throughout the year, assuming that the average price of silicon material including tax is 160000180000 yuan / ton, the corresponding net profit per ton is about 75 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 yuan / ton.
The progress of 4B project exceeded the market expectation, and the new project accelerated the expansion of production: 35000 tons of 4B project of the company was completed ahead of schedule in December 2021 and reached production in January 2022. The climbing progress exceeded the market expectation, and the increment of 2022q1 was significant. At present, the company has a production capacity of 105000 T / A, and the actual output can reach 120000 T / A, with significant scale effect. The product quality is of high quality. The single crystal materials account for more than 99% of the existing production capacity, and the batch sales of n-type high-purity silicon materials have been realized. We expect Baotou’s 100000 ton polysilicon & 1000 ton semiconductor project to be launched in March 2022 and completed in Q2 2023, continuously expanding production and strengthening its leading position.
Stable control ability of three fees: in 2021, the company’s expenses decreased by 4.66% year-on-year to 306 million yuan, and the expense rate decreased by 4.05 percentage points to 2.82%. Among them, sales, management (including R & D), R & D and financial expenses increased by 10.17%, 11.67%, 12.32% and 16.47% respectively year-on-year to 04 million yuan, 147 million yuan, 42 million yuan and 155 million yuan; The expense rate decreased by 0.04%, 1.46%, 0.63% and 2.55 percentage points to 0.04%, 1.35%, 0.38% and 1.43% respectively. In 2021q4, the expenses of sales, management (including R & D), R & D and finance were + 25.34% / + 47.70% / – 17.55% / – 68.67% year-on-year respectively, and the expense rates were 0.05% / 1.59% / 0.32% / 0.73% respectively.
The net inflow of operating cash flow decreased significantly, and the contract liabilities increased, highlighting the strong demand for orders: in 2021, the net inflow of cash flow from operating activities was 2.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 534.87%, of which the net cash flow from Q4 operating activities was -847 million yuan; Cash from commodity sales was 7.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.02%. The significant decrease in cash flow from operating activities is mainly due to the rise in unit price driven by the rise in raw materials in 2021q4, the sharp rise in the company’s inventory, and the poor operating cash flow in 2021q4 due to the accumulation of inventory. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 1.29 billion yuan, an increase of 446.47% over the beginning of the year. The company’s sales form is cash on delivery, silicon materials are in short supply, the price is strong, and the company has signed long orders with many customers to collect money, resulting in a significant increase in contract liabilities. At the end of 2021, the inventory was 2.124 billion yuan, an increase of 1.803 billion yuan over the beginning of the period; Inventory turnover days increased by 88.50 days to 118.32 days compared with the beginning of the period.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the tight balance of silicon material supply in 2022, we expect the silicon material price to remain high throughout the year, and we raise the company’s profit forecast. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 10.8/91/8.6 billion yuan, and the value before 20222023 will be 7.4/7.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 88.8% / – 15.5% / – 5.8%, corresponding to EPS of 5.62/4.75/4.47 yuan / share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the competition intensifies and the photovoltaic policy changes beyond expectations.
