\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Q4 performance declined in 21 years, and the growth rate was bright from January to February in 22 years
(1) the company issued a performance express. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 9.155 billion yuan (year-on-year + 80%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.228 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21%), and a deduction of non net profit of 1.193 billion yuan (year-on-year + 26%). In the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.682 billion (year-on-year + 55%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 222 million (year-on-year - 26%), and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 229 million (year-on-year - 19%).
(2) the company released the operating data from January to February 2022. The revenue was about 2.319 billion yuan (year-on-year + 203.11%), and the net profit attributable to the parent was 218 million yuan (year-on-year + 36.01%), with a bright growth rate of revenue and net profit.
The provincial representative drives the rapid growth of revenue, and non operating factors affect Q4 performance
(1) the high income growth is mainly due to the initial success of the provincial representative model, the rapid growth of gold wholesale sales revenue and the change of gold product income structure.
(2) main reasons for Q4 profit decline: 1. Non operating factors such as bad debt provision; 2. Q3 provincial agent concentrated efforts, and the order will overdraw part of the Q4 delivery volume in September; 3. Affected by the epidemic, the order performance in December will be poor, especially the diamond inlay category will be affected, and the advantageous regions such as Henan, northwest, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai will be impacted. 4. The promotion of some provincial representatives is still in the running in period, the effect of Q4 is not good, and it is getting better this year.
Future highlights: the provincial generation is getting better and better, promoting the speed-up of exhibition stores + gold volume
(1) restore the rhythm of exhibition stores: after the introduction of provincial representative in 2021q3, the company resumed the rhythm of opening stores, with a net increase of 2 / 66 / 100 / 145 in Q1-Q4 respectively; By the end of 2021, the number of stores had reached 4502, with a net increase of 313. It is expected that in the future, with the joint empowerment of the company, regional offices, provincial agents and franchisees, we will stimulate the vitality of channels and accelerate the pace of store expansion.
(2) rapid and large-scale production of gold products: gold sales maintain a high outlook. From the perspective of industry, according to the data released by China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the actual consumption of gold in China in 2021 was 112090 tons, an increase of 36.53% over the same period in 2020 and 11.78% over the same period in 2019 before the epidemic; The consumption of gold during the Spring Festival holiday increased by 13% year-on-year in 2027. In addition, the price side changed the weight of buy it now gold to promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. From the perspective of the company, the company launched the " Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) extraordinary ancient method gold series" and other characteristic products, built six product lines around the target population, application scenarios and other elements of gold products, strengthened the R & D and promotion of fashion and cultural and creative gold, and structural changes such as the improvement of gold product technology are the main driving force to promote gold sales; In addition, the provincial representative assisted the company to provide financial support for franchisees, improve the distribution efficiency and distribution volume of gold products of franchisees, and promote the sales of gold products.
(3) the growth of inlaid categories resumed: in 21 years, the company launched "love100 constellation Aurora diamond Master Series" and scene style jewelry 2.0 distribution model, continuously iteratively optimized product R & D and continuously improved product competitiveness.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
In the future, with the help of the provincial generation model, the gold on the product side is expected to continue to increase in volume, and the power to expand stores on the channel side is sufficient. We maintain the company's operating revenue of 12.2/15 billion yuan in 22-23 years, a year-on-year increase of + 33% / 24%. Considering the impact of the epidemic on the company's performance, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 22-23 years was reduced to RMB 1.42/1.72 billion (the previous value was RMB 1.74/2.03 billion), with a year-on-year increase of + 16% / 21%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.30/1.57, and the current closing price corresponding to PE of 10.4/8.6 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Store expansion is less than expected risk; The development of provincial representative model is less than the expected risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; Gold price fluctuation risk.
