In the last three months of 2021, the trading volume of second-hand housing market in key cities in China stabilized and rebounded, ending the continuous downward trend for half a year.
According to a report released by the shell Research Institute on the 4th, from October to December 2021, the monthly trading volume of shell second-hand houses in key 50 cities increased by 8%, 2% and 24% month on month respectively, and the transactions in the second-hand housing market stabilized and rebounded. Some key cities are gradually coming out of the trough, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shanghai, Hefei and Suzhou.
Since March this year, the second-hand housing market has cooled continuously for half a year, and the trading volume has declined month by month. In September, the trading volume of the second-hand housing market in 50 cities fell to an all-time low. Since August, the price index of second-hand houses in 50 cities has also entered the month on month decline range.
With the positive changes in trading volume, the report pointed out that in December, the month on month decline of the second-hand housing price index in 50 cities narrowed for the first time since the current round of decline, with a month on month decline of 0.8%, significantly narrowed compared with the level of – 1.7% in November, and the number of cities with falling prices also decreased from 48 in November to 37.
According to the report, the recovery of the second-hand housing market in the fourth quarter is mainly due to the improvement of the purchase credit environment and the boost to purchasing power and market confidence.
According to the data of the shell Research Institute, since the fourth quarter, the average mainstream first and second home loan interest rates in key 103 cities have continued to decline, with a cumulative decrease of about 10 basis points in December compared with September. The average lending cycle of housing loans has also continued to narrow in recent two months, with a cumulative reduction of 16 days.
With the restoration of the credit environment, the market expectation also bottomed out and improved. In December, the prosperity of the second-hand housing market in 50 cities increased from 15.6 in November to 17.4. The decline of mortgage interest rates in cities in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is generally higher, the intensity of credit easing is relatively greater, and the market repair is also stronger.
It is noteworthy that the report believes that the current market recovery is mild, fragile and differentiated, mainly due to the marginal improvement brought by policy correction. The situation of low temperature has not been significantly improved, and the market repair still needs time. In the fourth quarter, the trading volume of second-hand houses in shell 50 city continued to decline by about 7% compared with the third quarter, and the absolute level was basically at the low quarterly trading level since 2019.
(China News Network)
