The house "cabbage price" has been on the hot search. The land auction in representative cities is serious and the property market price has fallen. In 2021, especially since the second half of the year, the performance of the Northeast real estate market is not good.
According to the 100 city price index of China Index Research Institute, in December 2021, the average price of new houses in 100 cities nationwide was 16200 yuan / m2, down 0.02% month on month; The average price of second-hand houses was 16000 yuan / m2, down 0.09% month on month.
Specifically, in the northeast, the average prices of new houses in Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang in December were 9660 yuan / m2, 9218 yuan / m2 and 9998 yuan / m2 respectively, with month on month declines of 0.12%, 0.04% and 0.42% respectively, all lower than the average decline of 100 cities. Among them, Shenyang is one of the five cities with the largest decline in new house prices in China. The price decline of second-hand houses in the three provincial capitals was greater than that of new houses.
In order to break through the obstacles of the real estate market, many places in Northeast China have launched policies such as house purchase subsidies, house purchase coupons and support for real estate enterprise promotion, in order to support reasonable house purchase demand and help the real estate market return to stability.
poor performance of the property market
Recently, E-House Research Institute sorted out the data of the National Bureau of statistics and found that in the first November of 2021, the average transaction price of commercial housing in Heilongjiang ranked first in 31 provinces and cities, down 10% compared with the same period in 2020. Among the rise and fall of commercial housing turnover in November 2021, Heilongjiang fell 18% year-on-year, one of the three provinces with the largest decline.
Moreover, Heilongjiang real estate related indicators generally faced great downward pressure in November 2021, ranking lower among 31 provinces and cities. For example, the investment in real estate development and construction area in Heilongjiang decreased by 4% and 5% year-on-year respectively, ranking the penultimate and penultimate among 31 provinces and cities respectively.
Harbin is the capital of Heilongjiang Province and the only city with a population of 10 million in Northeast China.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from August to November 2021, new houses and second-hand houses in Harbin decreased continuously in April, and new houses decreased by 0.7% month on month in November, which is one of the top 10 cities in 70 cities; In November, second-hand housing fell by 1% month on month, ranking first in 70 cities.
The decline in house prices is only one aspect. According to the data provided by the marketing department of E-House Harbin company, from July to November, the transaction area of commercial housing in Harbin decreased year-on-year for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of 24% - 56%. On the whole, the cumulative supply area, average transaction price and transaction amount of commercial houses in Harbin in 2021 were in a downward state year-on-year, of which the annual transaction amount was 41.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36%.
Tao Han, deputy general manager of E-House Harbin, told the 21st Century Business Herald that one factor affecting the real estate market in Harbin in 2021 is the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic. As of mid December, Harbin has launched six rounds of full staff nucleic acid testing in six main urban areas.
In addition to the epidemic, population and industry are the deep reasons affecting the real estate market in Harbin. According to the data of Qipu, the permanent resident population of Harbin is nearly 10.01 million, a decrease of 626000 compared with 2010. In 2019, Harbin clearly wants to develop four leading industries: green Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) deep processing, advanced equipment manufacturing, modern biomedicine, characteristic culture and tourism. Affected by covid-19 pneumonia, characteristic culture and tourism perform poorly. Tao Han pointed out that among the house buyers in Harbin, many people are employed in private enterprises and service industries. The income of these groups is affected and their purchasing power is reduced.
To a certain extent, Harbin is the epitome of Heilongjiang and even the whole northeast property market. According to the data of Qipu, the population of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning in 2020 was 31.85 million, 24.07 million and 42.59 million respectively, a decrease of 6.46 million, 3.38 million and 1.15 million respectively compared with 2010, and the population as a whole was in an outflow state. From the perspective of industry, the growth of heavy industry and resource-based industries in Northeast China is weak, affecting economic and income growth, and the purchasing power of the real estate market is insufficient.
many places help the healthy development of the property market
The poor performance of the Northeast property market was further transmitted to the land market. As a pilot city for centralized land supply in Northeast China, the transactions of centralized land supply in Changchun and Shenyang were weak throughout the year.
According to the land information data of the account of China Index holdings, on December 22, 9 of the 11 residential land involved in the third batch of centralized land supply in Changchun were sold, with a flow rate of more than 80%. On December 24, only 8 of the 27 lands in the third batch of centralized land supply in Shenyang were successfully transferred, and the land auction rate exceeded 70%.
The person in charge of Northeast Regional Market Research of a leading real estate enterprise told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that as far as Shenyang is concerned, due to the large number of second-hand houses on sale, less population inflow and the previous rise in house prices, the Shenyang market has shown signs of cooling down in 2020. In 2021, the pilot of centralized land supply has higher requirements on the funds of real estate enterprises. The floor price of newly auctioned plots is higher as a whole, and it is more difficult to remove them. The third batch of centralized land supply real estate enterprises has greater capital pressure, and the brand real estate enterprises have reduced the land acquisition plan as a whole.
In order to boost the market, many cities and counties in the three provinces of Northeast China have launched policies such as house purchase subsidies, house purchase coupons and support for promotion of real estate enterprises.
For example, in September 2021, Changchun released the procedures for purchase subsidies and purchase coupons for talents and farmers. Talents and farmers are subsidized at the unit price of 50 yuan / m2 and 80 yuan / m2 respectively. Shenyang has also launched a subsidy policy for similar talents to purchase houses for the first time.
For another example, in October 2021, Harbin issued house purchase subsidies for qualified talents to purchase the first house, with a maximum of 100000 yuan; Real estate enterprises that meet certain conditions can apply for commercial housing pre-sale license by building; The advance rate of ordinary standard residential land value-added tax shall be 1.5%; Relax the service life of second-hand housing provident fund loans, increase the service life to 30 years, and so on, so as to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in many ways.
At the provincial level, Heilongjiang will encourage local residents to buy houses, promote sales and implement preferential policies from the provincial level in December 2021. In the same month, Jilin made it clear that it should encourage and guide all counties and cities to carry out house purchase subsidies and loan interest discounts, and support farmers to buy houses in cities. Incomplete statistics by 21st Century Business Herald reporters found that in Jilin Province alone, Changchun, Jilin, Siping, Liaoyuan and other places have launched targeted talent or house purchase subsidy policies for farmers in cities.
Tao Han believes that because the influencing factors of the real estate market in Heilongjiang are comprehensive, the measures to boost the market may not have a great impact in the short term. The above person in charge also believes that due to the continuous outflow of population in the northeast region, poor industrial development, house purchase subsidies and other policies are difficult to achieve the expected results, or expect stronger support policies.
"As far as I know, people who receive house purchase subsidies to buy a house originally have house purchase demand. They buy a house first and then receive subsidies. Most people will not buy a house because of the small increase in subsidies." The official said.
(21st Century Business Herald)
