Market review: Nonferrous index adjustment
In December 2021, the nonferrous metals sector declined by 6.22% as a whole, and the CSI 300 index rose by 2.24% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.46 percentage points. According to the classification of Shenwan level industries, the nonferrous metals sector ranked lower among the 28 industries in December, and there were obvious adjustments after the strong rebound in the early stage. There were great differences in the market, resulting in obvious stock price fluctuations.
Industrial metals: Europe is short of energy and the trend of metal prices is divided. Copper: tightening overseas liquidity suppresses copper prices, but copper prices continue to fluctuate with the support of low inventories.
Aluminum: the cost decreased and the profit of aluminum smelting returned to a high level. Since December, the market has speculated that there is a shortage of energy in Europe, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Europe accounts for about 6% of the world. Aluminum smelters such as Spain do have production reduction plans, and the aluminum price has stabilized again at more than 20000 yuan / ton. At the same time, coal prices and alumina prices continued to fall, and aluminum smelting profits began to expand. By the end of December, aluminum smelting profits calculated based on power coal prices and alumina market prices around the Bohai Sea had recovered to more than 2500 yuan / ton.
Lithium: the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt has entered the most tense moment
The price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has accelerated to 277500 yuan / ton; The price of spodumene imported from China rose rapidly, and the spot price rose to US $2560 / ton. On the supply side, the output of lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake in China will decline in winter; On the demand side, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) medium-sized vehicles continued to exceed expectations, driving the release of production and sales of cathode materials, especially the output of lithium iron phosphate remained strong. It is expected that at present, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt have entered the most tense moment, the global supply and demand tension of lithium ore is difficult to ease in the short term, and there is still room for further upward price of lithium.
Cobalt: the epidemic situation in Africa has repeatedly led to delays in the delivery of raw materials, and the cobalt price has risen steadily. The latest average price of MB standard cobalt is US $33.78/lb, and the latest price of CETC cobalt is RMB 485000 / ton. The cobalt price has reached a new high in three years. The recent epidemic in South Africa repeatedly led to delayed delivery of raw materials. The quantity of cobalt raw materials arriving in Hong Kong in November was less than expected, and China’s Cobalt raw materials remained tight. The global cobalt supply chain is relatively fragile. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, the instability of supply is easy to affect the cobalt price. We judge that the short-term cobalt price still has further upward space.
Rare earth: China rare earth group was established, and the price of rare earth rose higher than expected. The price of rare earth accelerated after rebounding from June to July, and remained volatile from August to September; After the National Day holiday in October, due to the impact of power restriction and tight supply of raw materials, some areas on the supply side shipped cautiously, while the replenishment demand on the demand side increased, new orders increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand exacerbated the rapid rise of rare earth prices, which exceeded market expectations. As of December 31, the quotation of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 850500 yuan / ton, an increase of 110.78% over the beginning of the year; Dysprosium oxide quotation: 2.915 million yuan / ton; The price of terbium oxide is 11.25 million yuan / ton.
Recommended targets: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co.Ltd(002540) .
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks have led to less than expected economic recovery; The turning point of monetary policy normalization of major foreign central banks is faster than market expectations; Supply increased more than expected.
（ Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) ）
