In 2021, A-Shares have been successfully closed, and the small market value style is dominant as a whole. Looking forward to 2022, many institutions are still optimistic about the continuation of the restless market in spring. In terms of configuration, green, low-carbon and steady economic growth are optimistic.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : blue chip diffusion promotes the "good start" market and actively participates in around the "three lows"
The policy synergy is gradually formed. It is expected that the economic stabilization and the recovery of the credit cycle will be verified in January. After the new year, the accelerated influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds are expected to open the "good start" market. After the preview of the blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected to spread, and the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year.
Continue to actively participate around the "three low positions". Focus on: 1. Varieties whose fundamentals are still expected to be low, focus on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment, etc; In addition, some of the consumer industries represented by Baijiu represented a fourth quarter of the year. They have already fulfilled the larger valuation repair. In the first quarter of this year, we suggested that the basic expectation is still at a low level of tax exemption and entertainment consumption.
2. For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, we pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
3. High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : actively grasp the most determined opportunities in the year and stick to the growth style
Supported by the recovery of consumption, the full opening of cross cycle regulation and liquidity care, the economic probability picked up in the first quarter. Monetary policy has shifted from structure to both aggregate and structure, releasing positive signals, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts, and credit is expected to continue in spring. The overall risk appetite is stable, and the attitude of policy steady growth is clearer. Therefore, it is recommended to actively grasp the most determined opportunities in the year and stick to the growth style in terms of configuration. In addition, the infrastructure and marginal improved real estate chain under steady growth, the securities business sector under the restlessness in spring and the consumer sector benefiting from the logic of price rise.
Actively participate in the restless market in spring around four main lines. Main line 1: continue to be optimistic about the growth direction, including the upstream of "double carbon" green power, scenery hydrogen storage and new energy, the middle and upper reaches of semiconductors with improved prosperity, military industry, and the computer sector with style diffusion and easily driven by emotion. Main line 2: building materials, real estate and its upstream and downstream under steady growth. The main force of short-term steady growth is still infrastructure and real estate. The real estate regulation policy has been marginal relaxed, and the better repair of investment and sales than pessimistic expectations is worthy of attention. Main line 3: Securities Companies in the restless spring. Main line 4: consumption mainly follows the rise, looking for opportunities along the main line of price rise, but it will not be the brightest plate.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : optimistic about the market in the first quarter. The value and market in 2022 are slightly dominant
The signal of "steady growth" in 2022 is clear, and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened. It is estimated that the GDP in 2022 will be 5% - 5.5% year-on-year, and the roe peak of A-Shares will be in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of liquidity, the long-term trend of asset allocation to equity migration remains unchanged, and the supply and demand of stock market funds are balanced in 2022.
In terms of market style, in 22 years, the value and market are slightly dominant, and the CSI 300 is stronger than the CSI 500. In 2021, from the index level, the small market value is dominant, and the CSI 500 performs better than the CSI 300. Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of profit, we expect the parent net profit of the CSI 300 to be 7% year-on-year and the CSI 500 to be 2%; From the perspective of market environment, we believe that A-Shares may usher in periodic repair under the dual disturbance of high inflation and cyclical decline of earnings. Therefore, when the performance is relatively dominant and the market may adjust, the CSI 300 is expected to be slightly better than the CSI 500 in 2022.
Optimistic about the market in the first quarter, it is necessary to reduce expectations in 2022. In the first quarter, the market balanced the undervalued big finance, high prosperity hard technology and consumption following the rebound.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : this round of cross year offensive is progressing smoothly in rhythm, paying attention to the configuration of consumption and infrastructure chain
Looking forward to 2022, under the background of falling profit end and loose restraint at denominator end, the A-share market will still maintain a range shock with a top and a bottom. The overall operation rhythm of the market will be consistent with the general tone of "taking multiple measures to promote the stable operation of the market and resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs" of the CSRC. Further focus on this round of cross year offensive and think that this round of agitation will be more gentle in rhythm.
Industry configuration: pay attention to the configuration of consumption and infrastructure chain. Recommendation: 1, consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism and other directions with support and negative expectations. 2. Infrastructure: grasp the key points of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and also pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth; 3. Finance: securities companies and banks; 4. Consumer electronics.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : seize the opportunity at the beginning of the year and lay out three directions at the beginning of the year
Looking forward to the market situation in January this year, we believe that the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the opportunity at the beginning of the year should be grasped. The main reason for the market recovery in January is that the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved. However, for the duration and height of the market this spring, we believe that we should have reasonable expectations. If there is a large rise, we should consider cashing it in time.
At present, we are mainly optimistic about three directions: first, we are optimistic about the opportunity of transformation and revaluation of undervalued traditional industries: the undervalued sector has higher cost performance and is first repaired in the early stage of wide credit. At present, China's external environment also requires a breakthrough from the transformation. Focus on: thermal power transformation, new energy operation, consumer electronics transformation, automotive electronics, computer media transformation, metauniverse, state-owned enterprise reform and transformation, etc.
Second, the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology. Out of concern about performance fulfillment or sustainability, the hard technology industry has experienced a shock correction recently. In the long term, the configuration cost performance has gradually become prominent. If its high prosperity can be further confirmed after the beginning of the year, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on: military industry, semiconductor materials, IGBT, photovoltaic, etc.
Third, focus on the direction of financial development. The national financial work video conference requires ten key tasks to be done well in 2022. It is proposed to moderately advance infrastructure investment. We believe that the key direction of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year is to focus on infrastructure (especially new infrastructure), green and low-carbon, agriculture (food security and seed industry, etc.).
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : Spring agitation, seize the "double carbon new cycle" and business expectation
Since the past 15 years, during the turbulent spring period, the performance of the industry with continuous improvement in the medium-term prosperity expectation has been significantly dominant. Allocation suggestions: A-Shares are "restless in spring" to seize the "double carbon new cycle" and economic changes. At present, some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market. We don't think we need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the "feasible stage". It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the "double carbon new cycle" and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the "high-frequency expected prosperity observation model", and layout the restlessness in spring.
It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration. 1. Reduce the reserve requirement and stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); 2. "Double carbon new cycle" + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, green power operation, coal chemical industry and military industry); 3. Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the index market is still on the way, and the "small high tech" is arranged with long playing short and bargain hunting
Although the market has been bumpy recently, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the "wide currency" and "wide credit" windows, the negative factors have gradually subsided, and the index market is still on the way. Various allocation of funds is expected to bring a "good start" to the market.
Investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out "small high-tech" with long-term fight against short-term and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1. New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.); 2. New generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.); 3. High end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tool, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.); 4. Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.); 5. Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Guosheng Securities: continue to be optimistic about the market in spring. Steady growth is the largest beta main line in the first quarter
Weakening restless expectations, returning to fundamental pricing and steady growth are the core beta of the spring market. At the beginning of the year, the probability of "a good start" of incremental funds exceeding expectations is decreasing. In the past, there was agitation in spring, and the logic of pure risk preference improvement is weakening. The credit conditions are about to stabilize in a real sense. The m1-ppi scissors gap will be repaired upward, and continue to be optimistic about the spring market of 22 years, and steady growth is the largest beta main line in the next quarter.
Continue to be optimistic about the repair of value stocks in the medium term, and recommend food and beverage, high-quality developers, banks and power operations; New and old infrastructure development direction, the first is: construction / building materials, UHV, communication; Upstream cost reversal machinery, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.
YueKai Securities: A-Shares have a promising start and a dominant growth style
Through the back test of the new year's day market over the years, A-Shares are expected to have a good start. According to statistics, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell in a period after the new year's Day holiday in the past 10 years, with a high probability of rise, especially in the week after new year's day, the probability of rise of the Shanghai stock index reached 80%. Specifically, in the past 10 years, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising in the week after the new year's Day holiday reached 80%, with an average increase of 2.27%; In the following month, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising reached 60%, with an average increase of 1.04%.
From the rise and fall of various style indexes in the week after the new year's Day holiday in the past decade, the growth style has the advantage, and the rise of financial style is the bottom. Over the past 10 years, the growth style index has a rising probability of 80% in the week after new year's day, with a median increase of 1.73%, and the winning rate is ahead of other style indexes.
It is suggested that investors focus on three main investment opportunities: first, investment opportunities in the science and technology sector with favorable policies; 2、 The consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance; 3、 Investment opportunities in sectors with higher annual forecast rate and winning rate after new year's day over the years.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : the market style may gradually switch from small and medium-sized market to market value and market growth
At present, the volume of the A-share market is lower than the high point in mid December. The centralized release of long and short information at the end of the previous year has gradually ended, and the market expectations are basically consistent, cooling the restlessness. In 2022, in the macro environment of economic downturn and relatively abundant macro liquidity, A-Shares lack the internal driving force of overall trend upward, and the probability of systemic risk is also low. The structural market will still deepen the interpretation, and the style may gradually switch from small and medium-sized market to large-scale value and market growth. First, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks may have been released intensively this year. Under the downward trend of overall profit expectation and high base effect, the callback risk is relatively large. Second, the market growth is expected to maintain a high boom driven by industrial logic. It is suggested to pay attention to the coverage targets such as entrepreneurship 50 and entrepreneurship blue chip. Third, the market value has a strong risk aversion attribute, or can obtain excess benefits under the economic downward trend.
(Financial Associated Press)
