Today (January 4) is the first trading day after the A-share New Year's Day holiday. The three major stock indexes opened high, weakened rapidly at the beginning of the session, accelerated the diving rhythm, and then maintained the weak pattern of low shock. From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stock market reappeared, led by traditional Chinese medicine stocks, the four sectors of culture and tourism, media, retail and breeding also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the market in January remained optimistic, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy formed resonance and actively increased. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that after the first bottoming in this cycle, the breeding end has been obviously under pressure, and the trend of capacity removal has been established. However, the increase in the supplement column brought by the recent price rebound and the improvement in the breeding efficiency brought by the increase in the proportion of binary high breeding sows will delay the bottom of pig prices. Recently, the plate has entered the downward range again after the rebound, and the bottom building mood is relatively strong. It is suggested to pay attention to two types of enterprises: one is to select head breeding enterprises with cost advantages and abundant cash flow; Second, after the second bottom of pig prices, it is suggested to pay attention to small and beautiful growth targets with comparative advantages in capacity reserves and valuation.
AVIC Securities said that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry belongs to an important field of national economy and people's livelihood and mandatory consumption, and the institutions tend to be standard. With the change of pig cycle, the proportion of institutional allocation of agricultural stocks has decreased in recent years. In individual stocks, institutions prefer Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) high-quality breeding targets.
In terms of key directions and investment opportunities in 2022, 1) the trend will not continue. The revitalization of seed industry is promoted, and the commercialization of biological breeding can be expected. In 2022, the policy, industry and technology cycle is expected to continue to evolve upward, and the seed industry will usher in a high boom. The commercialization of genetically modified organisms has accelerated. Trait enterprises and cooperative variety enterprises with safety certificate reserves in the early stage hope to rely on the first mover advantage and enjoy the dividend of policy promotion in advance.
Pet consumption grows, pet enterprises expand production capacity by brand, and hope to realize their performance. Pet consumption has entered the growth track. It is estimated that by 2023, the CAGR of the industry will exceed 22%. In addition, the trend of online channel penetration is becoming more and more obvious. This year, the sales of pet food and pet products have increased significantly year-on-year. Enterprises increase investment and operation of independent brands, capacity expansion and R & D support, and hope to realize their performance.
The breeding industry is extended, with vertical and horizontal two-way layout to open the growth curve. Large enterprises actively layout the horizontal and vertical integration development strategy, the vertical extension will open up profit space, the horizontal comprehensive service will improve the share and incremental business income, and the core competitiveness will continue to highlight.
2) Start again after periodic baptism. The pig cycle looks to the bottom, and pay close attention to the layout opportunities on the left in 2022. We believe that the loose capacity of the industry will continue for some time, and the downturn in the later stage may lead to a new round of capacity deregulation. If the capacity is completely removed, H2 hopes to gradually enter the rising channel of the next cycle, and the layout opportunity on the left side of the plate appears. Yellow feather broilers will usher in fundamental improvement. The stock of parent generation of yellow feather broilers is at a low level in recent years, superimposed with the improvement of demand margin, which is expected to be interpreted upward. []
[Theme 2] media
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that looking forward to 2022, there will be sufficient reserves of overseas and domestic films, the supply will be repaired, and the overall box office performance is expected to continue to be repaired. In addition, some small and medium-sized cinemas will be cleared during the epidemic period, and the competition pattern is expected to improve; Long video - there will be a partial shortage of content supply under strong content supervision in 2021. We believe that the content is expected to be released intensively in 2022. In addition, the pattern of long video is expected to improve gradually. It is suggested to focus on the leading Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) ; Content leading company Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , reading group; Long video company Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) .
In addition, the agency further analyzed that at the current time point, we believe that the industry impact brought by policy supervision is basically coming to an end. The game industry and e-sports industry are the main melody of the development of the global cultural industry, and promoting the healthy and standardized development of the industry is the key. With the efficiency improvement of the industry's purchase volume entering the mature stage, the industry ushering in a new product cycle and the emotional repair of strict policy supervision, we believe that we should pay attention to the investment opportunities at the bottom, pay attention to the product cycle of leading companies in the short term, and be optimistic about the incremental space brought by the sea market in the long term. It is suggested to focus on Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , heart company and ZuLong entertainment.
New era Securities pointed out that looking forward to 2022, we can strengthen the allocation of media interconnection. Antitrust and data security are important variables in the development of the Internet. This round of supervision has been basically implemented in an orderly manner, and the industry has developed orderly and standardized under Antitrust and data security. Looking forward to 2022, we should gradually strengthen the allocation of media Internet and grasp the era of meta universe. From the listing of roblox, the first stock of metauniverse, to the renaming of Facebook to meta, Microsoft released the enterprise metauniverse, NVIDIA continued to invest in metauniverse in technology, and then put forward the Quanzhen Internet from China Tencent, byte beating layout, VR track acquisition of Pico, Netease and Baidu released the metauniverse platform, and the establishment of the metauniverse Association. All walks of life have constantly discussed and understood the metauniverse. Metauniverse may be understood as the next generation Internet, which will generate different connections and experiences of time and space between people and things based on different terminals. The ultimate form will depend on the development of technology.
At present, we believe that there are several directions that can be grasped around the meta universe. First, new hardware terminals and consumer arvr devices can be compared with the situation of mobile phones; Second, the new operating system or operating platform built on arvr devices, represented by Microsoft, Google, apple, wechat and other platform companies; Third, in addition to the transferred entertainment and enterprise industrial applications, or new applications with a volume of 100 million will be generated, and the business model will be extended by changing the new interaction mode of connection and experience. Although the current industrial development is at an early stage, it is developing rapidly. Early investment should grasp the digital entertainment content that has the most performance support and is most likely to be transferred to the meta universe, such as digital games, virtual people and idols, exhibitions, etc. []
[Theme 3] scenic spots and tourism
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to a lower than expected pace of industrial recovery, the leading enterprises have continued to open stores rapidly, single hotels have continued to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization has been continuously verified. Looking forward to 2022, there is still much room for improvement in China's hotel chain rate and industry concentration compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the progress of China's tourism recovery has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still limited by epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the plate market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic in the short term, but China's strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the promotion of therapeutic drug research and development, the influenza trend of covid-19 remains unchanged, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. After the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate under the action of demand recovery. []
[theme 4] retail
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that from the social consumption data in November, the overall social consumption growth rate is weak, which will suppress the recovery of the retail sector in the short term. At the same time, given that the recurrence of the epidemic has a great impact on offline stores of retail terminals, we believe that there will be some pressure on the sprint at the end of 2021. To sum up, it still needs policy stimulus to boost consumer demand, and it still takes time for the overall improvement of the demand side. We suggest that investors may wish to wait and see in the short term, wait for new catalysts for consumer goods, such as policy support, and then cut into the retail sector.
Looking forward to 2022, Shanghai Securities pointed out that retail may continue to present a differentiated market, look for structural highlights and look forward to bottom recovery. In terms of investment suggestions, investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues the strong recovery trend and high outlook since the beginning of the year. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and we suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Professional chain convenience stores and encrypted exhibition stores provide convenience, superimpose business model expansion and jointly resist the impact of new business forms. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) ; In the traditional and new retail field, the business format of warehousing members is in the ascendant. It is suggested to pay attention to HEMA (Alibaba) and Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) that actively layout the business format of warehousing stores.
Investment main line two: new retail business of the electricity supplier, live broadcasting and shop self seeding rapid development, and suggest to pay attention to the tiktok electricity supplier and Alibaba. The Matthew effect of community group buying is getting stronger. It is suggested to pay attention to meituan and fight more.
Investment main line 3: the background of common prosperity, the current situation of superimposed traffic peaking, and the fierce competition among Internet enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with the advantages of supply chain.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that with the further enrichment of new formats, new models and new scenes in the retail industry, domestic brands in the new consumption field will continue to promote the digital transformation, realize the omni-channel coverage of online touch and offline experience, and constantly upgrade the brand core to tap the medium and high-end market while meeting the public consumption demand. It mainly focuses on the three main lines of the rise of domestic goods, consumption upgrading and channel integration. []
