Today is the first trading day of A-Shares in 2022. The market opened high and went low. The gem index and Kechuang 50 both fell by more than 2%.
Although the overall performance of the market is poor, in fact, the rising stocks are far more than the falling stocks, and more than 70% of the stocks are red. Today's decline does not mean that the future market of A-Shares will be bearish. According to the statistics of the market trend after the new year's Day festival in the past 11 years, it can be found that in the first week after the festival, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index have a rise probability of more than 70%. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 936 million yuan.
In addition, track stocks fell sharply today, with cro, chips, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other sectors leading the decline. Among them, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) once fell by more than 10%, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) fell by more than 8%, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once fell by more than 4%, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) fell by the limit, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) and so on.
traditional Chinese medicine stocks rise again
From today's morning disk, the traditional Chinese medicine plate continued its pre Festival strength, and then lifted the limit tide; Pork, aquatic products, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other sectors closely related to festival consumption also led the increase; Yuancosmos also continued to lead the rise of Internet related sectors such as cloud games, online Red economy, online games, media and entertainment; Tourism, public transport, shipping and other festival benefit sectors also strengthened one after another. The new energy industry chain of salt lake lithium, polysilicon, photovoltaic, lithium battery and other popular tracks before the festival has been deeply callback.
At the end of 2021, the Chinese medicine sector, which was very popular, continued to maintain a strong upward offensive on the first trading day of the new year, and the heat was even worse. At the end of last year, the sector index jumped into the air in large quantities, opened higher, and soared by more than 4%. The half day transaction was one trading day ahead of the whole day transaction, Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002750) 9 connected to the board, Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300519) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) 20% limit, Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300039) , Xiangxue Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300147) , Hunan Hansen Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002412) Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) and other more than 20 shares rose by the limit or more than 10%.
The year-on-year rise in the traditional Chinese medicine sector stems from the continuous positive industrial policies in the near future. At the end of December 2021, the State Medical Security Bureau and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine again issued the guiding opinions of the State Medical Security Bureau and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, requiring to give full play to the advantages of the medical security system and support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that traditional Chinese medicine preparations, Internet traditional Chinese medicine services and appropriate technologies of traditional Chinese medicine were included in the scope of medical insurance, and the reform of payment method of traditional Chinese medicine medical insurance was promoted. Traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions do not implement DRG payment for the time being. The sales of prepared pieces of traditional Chinese medicine shall not exceed 25%, and formula particles are encouraged to be collected everywhere. The mainland policy obviously encourages the development of traditional Chinese medicine. Compared with the whole biomedical sector, there is a premium space in the valuation center of the traditional Chinese medicine sector.
performance preheating
At the beginning of the new year, the annual report of 2021 is about to be disclosed. The performance pre increase shares are also warmly sought after by the market today, and the performance wave shows signs of preheating. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) it is announced today that the annual net profit in 2021 is expected to be 890-920 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 317.71% - 331.79%. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) said that the penetration rate of high nickel technology route in the terminal of new energy vehicles was further improved. Driven by the high demand of downstream customers, the company accelerated the release of new production capacity, doubled its annual sales year-on-year, and continued to maintain a leading position in China's ternary cathode material market. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) opened sharply higher in the morning and rose more than 10% in the session.
Naipu Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(300818) released the performance forecast at the end of last year. It is expected that the performance will increase significantly from January to December 2021, and the net profit will be 165-195 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 306.17% - 380.02%. Naipu Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(300818) after two consecutive 20% word limit increases, it opened sharply again today, hitting an all-time high. Pre added shares in 2021 annual reports such as Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) , Goertek Inc(002241) all increased in volume in early trading and strengthened against the trend.
The main contract of thermal coal futures opened sharply higher today, up 6.17% as of the afternoon closing, the price weighed 700 yuan / ton, and the main contract of coking coal and coke also rose by more than 4%. Driven by the sharp rise in coal prices, the A-share coal sector also opened significantly higher in the morning. The sector index once rose by more than 4%, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) limit, Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) , Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power Co.Ltd(600121) and other strong pull ups, and the coal ETF also rose by more than 2%.
In terms of news, the Indonesian Ministry of energy and Mineral Resources recently said that from January 1 to January 31 this year, Indonesia banned coal export, including coal carriers that are loading and have not yet been loaded, and all coal will be given priority to Chinese power plants. It is reported that this move is to alleviate the current shortage of coal supply in Indonesia and give priority to ensuring China's power demand. Indonesian Minister of energy and mineral resources tasrif also said that after the coal demand of the country's power plants is fully met, the coal export will return to normal, but he did not mention the specific time, but said that the government will reassess the policy after January 5.
Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with an export volume of about 400 million tons in 2020. It is the largest source of China's coal / thermal coal imports. From January to November 2021, China imported 177 million tons of Indonesian thermal coal, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%, accounting for 74.4% of the total imported thermal coal.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the average monthly coal import of Indonesia accounts for 5.39% of China's total coal supply, and the short-term power coal price is expected to bottom. In terms of demand, at present, the inventory of the power plant is running at a high level, and the daily consumption is lower than expected, so the procurement demand is poor. In terms of supply, the production task of coal mines will be completed at the end of the year, and more coal mines will stop production and reduce production, but normal production may return after new year's day. Under the condition that the coal demand is less than expected, the reduction of imported coal is expected to support the coal price in the short term.
organization: seize the opportunity at the beginning of the year
Institutions are also optimistic about the market in January, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that the A-share market can be expected to rise in January 2022, and four factors supporting the market deserve attention: first, M1 growth rate and social finance growth rate have hit the bottom, with obvious signs of recovery, and the macro liquidity environment is relatively warm; Second, the steady growth policy is expected to be further strengthened; Third, the Fed did not raise interest rates; Four, the valuation is the most important industry in 2021. The industry is mainly concentrated in the new energy, Baijiu, automobile and social service of power equipment. Most other industries still have attractive value.
Galaxy Securities said that the overall macro environment in January 2022 was conducive to equity assets, and the restless market in spring could be expected. In terms of industry configuration, we are optimistic about two main lines, namely, the real estate and consumer industries that benefit from the improvement of economic margin, and the long-term investment main lines related to high-end manufacturing and specialization and innovation. Li zhuorei also said that investors can pay attention to the disclosure of the annual report performance forecast.
Guosheng Securities said that in 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.67%, and the gem index rose by 12.02%. All three indexes achieved three consecutive positive years in the annual line. Looking forward to 2022, the upcoming comprehensive registration system, the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction under the prudent monetary policy and the coherent policy of housing, housing and non speculation will help to further promote the liquidity and activity of the A-share market, and the trading volume is expected to remain high, especially the slow bull market.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) pointed out that the recent A-share adjustment, the trend of long-term and short-term interest rates differentiated, and the term interest spread narrowed, which more reflected the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of the credit easing policy. In this context, looking forward to the market situation in January this year, the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the opportunity at the beginning of the year should be grasped. However, for the duration and height of the market this spring, we should have reasonable expectations. If there is a large rise, we should consider cashing it in time. At present, we are mainly optimistic about three directions: first, the opportunity of transformation and revaluation of undervalued traditional industries; Second, the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology; Third, focus on the direction of financial development.
(E company)
