Omicron’s uncertainty may cause the downward range of PPI to be lower than the market expectation. The central economic work conference releases the signal of steady growth. We expect that A-Shares will continue the structured market. In the short term, we suggest to pay attention to the infrastructure field. In 2022, the overall preference is to the defensive sector represented by large consumption.
In 2022, the downward range of PPI may be lower than market expectations, and inflation continues. Based on the logic that peripheral markets should control inflation and reduce demand, and the price rise trend of industrial products will be transmitted to Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , the industry has almost reached a consensus on the inflation expectation in 2022. However, due to the difficulty in accurately judging the impact of the epidemic on the global economy, there is more uncertainty about the downward range of PPI. Regardless of the impact of Omicron, it may lead to the deviation in the prediction of PPI downward range, and the actual PPI decline may be lower than the market expectation.
The central economic work conference is the beginning of all easing, but “blood transfusion” to the real estate industry is not “saving” real estate enterprises. The central economic work conference at the end of 2021 made a rapid turn to the current economic work policies, which is the beginning of all stable growth. It “takes economic construction as the center” to raise high and clear the key objectives of local assessment, so as to promote the local government to keep pace with the central government and stabilize the macro-economic market. We believe that the relevant policies are to “give blood” to the real estate industry, but not to “save” real estate enterprises, mainly to alleviate the pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises and ensure employment.
The regulatory policy is coming to an end, and the Internet leader of Hong Kong stocks has investment opportunities in 2022. *** The central economic work conference explained that China and South Korea Wenxiu had made significant achievements in antitrust and preventing disorderly capital expansion. From the positive expression of phased achievements to major achievements, we believe that the regulatory policy for the Internet leader of Hong Kong stocks has come to an end. After the revision of the anti-monopoly law is implemented in early March 2022, the bad will be completely exhausted, and the Hong Kong stocks represented by the Internet will have investment opportunities in 2022.
Configuration: A-Shares continue the structured market, short-term new infrastructure and overall defense. ① Economic growth pays more attention to high-quality structure and new economic development, which shows that it will be difficult for the market to have the driving force for all companies to rise, so we need to pay more attention to structural opportunities. ② The central economic work conference in 2021 set a positive tone. We expect that the hot spots in the short term will focus on the varieties linked to construction and new infrastructure investment. Looking forward to 2022, our overall attitude is defensive, the industry tends to be large, and the consumption risk suggests that the global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccine effectiveness is not as expected; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
