background
In 2021, there was an epic capital inflow in the global stock market. In 2021, the capital inflow volume of the global stock market exceeded the sum of the inflows in the past 15 years, and its capital inflow volume and slope are very huge.
Global stock market capital inflows peaked
After a huge amount of capital inflows, and then superimposed on the marginal tightening or even accelerated tightening of liquidity by the global central banks, as mentioned in our annual strategy for 2022, China's stock market strategy outlook for 2022: be cautious in the first half of the year, the probability of global stock market funds has peaked. We calculated the ratio of global stock market capital inflows to the beginning asset size. We found that the ratio had indeed peaked and began to fall.
With the global stock market capital inflows peaking, the downward pressure on the global stock market will further appear. In this case, it is necessary to study and judge the pressure of the sector from the perspective of capital flow.
The sensitivity of revenue of each sector to capital flow is different: the cyclical sector has the highest sensitivity and the public utilities sector has the lowest sensitivity
We analyzed the weekly returns of various sectors of the global stock market from 2010 to 2021 and the relative changes of weekly capital flows, that is, the proportion of capital inflows / outflows in the opening market value. The statistics of fund flow include the amount of funds flowing in / out of each sector of the global fund.
The regression coefficient between weekly income and weekly capital flow is given, which represents the percentage of income that can be pried by the relative change of 1% capital flow. We found that:
For all sectors, capital inflow is positively correlated with current income.
Cyclical sectors are most sensitive to capital flows. The cyclical sectors represented by finance, industry and energy sectors are most sensitive to capital flow. Taking the financial sector with the highest ranking as an example, each percentage point of capital flow should account for about 2.9% of the current income; For the industrial sector, each percentage point of funds corresponds to about 2.6% of the current income.
The defensive sector has the lowest sensitivity to capital flow. The defensive sector has the lowest sensitivity to capital flow. Taking the lowest ranked public utilities sector as an example, the capital flow of each percentage point should be about 0.29% of the current income, which is far lower than that of the cyclical sector.
