The 14th five year plan for science and technology has been intensively released, and relevant industries are expected to usher in rapid development opportunities
Recently, many ministries and commissions have intensively released the 14th five year plan for the science and technology industry, pointing out the path for the transformation and upgrading of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry, and providing policy support for the rapid development of science and technology related industries.
On December 28, 2021, the “14th five year plan” Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) Industrial Development Plan “was released, which proposed that by 2025, China will form a number of leading enterprises with international competitiveness and a large number of specialized and new” little giants “with strong innovation ability and good growth; On the same day, the 14th five year plan for the development of medical equipment industry proposed that a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform should be further promoted. In the future, leading enterprises in the medical device industry and “small and beautiful” enterprises with competitive advantages in the subdivided track are expected to continue to benefit from policy support; On December 29, the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry was released, which clearly put forward that the high-end supply level should be continuously improved. Among them, the rare earth industry has been repeatedly mentioned, and the concentration and R & D investment of the rare earth industry may continue to increase in the future. In addition, the electrolytic aluminum industry, large aircraft Key material industry chains in key application fields such as aeroengines are expected to continue to benefit.
At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are in-depth promoted, the global competition in science and technology and industry is becoming more intense, and the strategic game between big countries further focuses on the manufacturing industry. In the future, China’s science and technology industry will follow the two main lines of independent control and innovation leadership. With the support of top-level policies, the investment opportunities in subdivided science and technology fields highlighted in the 14th five year plan deserve attention.
In terms of performance, in the first three quarters of 21 years, the growth rate of parent net profit in the electronic and electrical equipment industry exceeded 30%, and the growth rate of the electronic industry exceeded 60%, ranking seventh among the 28 Shenwan industries. In terms of valuation, some undervalued technology industries have continued to repair recently. Under the condition of loose liquidity, the superimposed performance expectation is good, and the technology growth sector is expected to carry out valuation repair. In terms of capital, foreign capital favored the science and technology growth sector. Last week, the net inflow amount of the electrical equipment industry ranked first among the 28 application level industries.
Under the triple resonance of performance, valuation and capital, technology stocks are expected to usher in medium and long-term investment opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the segments mentioned in the 14th five year plan in the field of science and technology, and focus on 5g, integrated circuit, industrial Internet, intelligent transportation, etc.
Back test of new year’s day market over the years: A-Shares are expected to have a good start and their growth style is dominant
Through the back test of the new year’s day market over the years, A-Shares are expected to have a good start. According to statistics, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell in a period after the new year’s Day holiday in the past 10 years, with a high probability of rise, especially in the week after new year’s day, the probability of rise of the Shanghai stock index reached 80%. Specifically, in the past 10 years, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising in the week after the new year’s Day holiday reached 80%, with an average increase of 2.27%; In the following month, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising reached 60%, with an average increase of 1.04%.
From the rise and fall of various style indexes in the week after the new year’s Day holiday in the past decade, the growth style has the advantage, and the rise of financial style is the bottom. Over the past 10 years, the growth style index has a rising probability of 80% in the week after new year’s day, with a median increase of 1.73%, and the winning rate is ahead of other style indexes.
In terms of industries, in the week after new year’s day in the past 10 years, the sectors with high probability of rise are electronics, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, basic chemical industry and non-ferrous metals, and the industries with high average increase are national defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, steel, mining and power equipment.
On the whole, A-Shares generally have a more positive market performance after the new year’s Day holiday over the years. The probability of rise of the Shanghai index is high and the growth style is dominant; Specifically, at the industry level, the electronic and power equipment sector has a high winning rate in the week after new year’s day.
General trend study and judgment
Last week was the last trading week of 2021. The A-share market fluctuated at a high level, and the main indexes closed red across the board. The Shanghai index rose 0.60%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.00%, and the gem index rose 0.78%. The annual increases of the three major indexes were 4.8%, 2.7% and 12% respectively, all rising for three consecutive years. Among them, the Shanghai index has achieved three consecutive positive lines for the first time since 1994.
In 2021, the market trading was hot. The annual turnover of A-Shares was 257 trillion, which exceeded the level during the bull market in 2015 and reached a record high. It was mainly affected by the acceleration of residents’ wealth into the market and the growth of quantitative transactions. It is expected that the daily average turnover of trillion is expected to become the new normal of the market and A-Shares will reach a new level in the future.
In terms of monetary policy, at the end of 2021, steady growth and cross cycle adjustment will work again. Under the main theme of “I-oriented” monetary policy, we believe that there is still room for further easing of future policy efforts, and the policy efforts in 22 years are expected to be more positive. The first half of 22 is the best time window for monetary policy easing. On the whole, we expect that there is still room for further easing in the future under the background of the advance of the importance of cross cycle economic regulation and stable growth, and the monetary policy of “focusing on me” is highlighted again.
In terms of economic data, PMI in December increased by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry continued to rise. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry has maintained rapid growth. At present, China’s economy has generally maintained a recovery trend. With the increase of a series of stable economic development policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and helping enterprises to rescue, the prices of some bulk commodities have fallen, and the cost pressure of middle and lower reaches enterprises has been relieved. It is suggested that the focus of investment should gradually shift to middle and lower reaches, and pay attention to hard science and technology industries such as high-tech manufacturing.
In terms of industrial policies, many ministries and commissions have recently intensively released the 14th five year plan for the science and technology industry, specifically targeting the fields of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry. In the future, China’s science and technology development will follow the two main lines of independent control and innovation leading. With the support of top-level policies, the investment opportunities in subdivided science and technology fields mentioned in the plan deserve attention.
At the market level, from historical experience, A-Shares have a good start and the market can be expected. According to statistics, in the past 10 years, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell in a period after the new year’s Day holiday, with a high probability of rise, especially in the week after new year’s day, the probability of rise of the Shanghai stock index reached 80%. In terms of industries, in the week after new year’s day in the past 10 years, the industries with high rise probability are electronics, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, basic chemical industry and non-ferrous metals, and the industries with high average rise are national defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, mining and electrical equipment.
In terms of performance, at present, the performance prediction rate of A-share annual report reaches 81.51%, with a total of 97 enterprises, including many enterprises in pharmaceutical, biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. In terms of performance growth, based on the average growth rate of net profit in the performance forecast, the net profit of 20 companies increased by more than 100%, and the net profit of 15 companies increased by between 50% and 100%. The performance growth is expected to double, and the stocks are mainly concentrated in high-profile industries such as chemical, pharmaceutical and electronics.
We believe that with the support of economic data recovery, policy superposition, gradual implementation and performance level, A-Shares are expected to make a good start in 2021. It is recommended that investors focus on three main investment opportunities: first, investment opportunities in the science and technology sector with favorable policies; 2、 The consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance; 3、 Investment opportunities in sectors with higher annual forecast rate and winning rate after new year’s day over the years.
Risk tip: policy promotion is less than expected, and the peripheral environment is weaker than expected
