Key points:
1. We remain optimistic about the market in January. The three factors of economy, liquidity and policy resonate and actively go long. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment.
2. PMI rebounded for two consecutive months, the phased economic downturn slowed down, and the effect of steady growth will gradually appear. Structurally, ppi-cpi convergence is the main theme, and the profit distribution pattern of upstream, middle and downstream is improved. Economic changes are not the main contradiction of the market, but January is the centralized disclosure period of the annual report forecast, and the importance of performance will be significantly improved.
3. The first quarter is a window period for further easing of monetary policy, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can be expected. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has not substantially tightened monetary policy. The situation in the first half of this year is similar to that when there was a deviation from the China US policy cycle from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is imminent. Credit easing is an important goal of monetary policy in 2022. Its realization needs top-down policy drive and bottom-up carrier support. Whether social finance can exceed the expected volume from January to February is an important observation window.
4. Policies focus on steady growth, domestic demand as the main focus, bulk consumption and new consumption go hand in hand, new and old infrastructure work together, highlighting the connotation of high-quality development. In January, the local two sessions were held intensively, focusing on the formulation of growth objectives and the layout of key tasks and investment projects.
5. In terms of configuration, the growth sector is dominant in the environment of “weak economy + wide currency”. After adjustment, the growth sector has a good cost performance. Two directions can be considered: one is the media, military industry, computer and other industries with good performance valuation matching; the other is to find a more definite direction along the deductive path of the industrial cycle, and pay attention to software development, it services Subdivision fields such as optical image. The preferred industries in January are: electronics, media, national defense and military industry.
Summary:
1. Spring restlessness, growth and diffusion. We remain optimistic about the market in January. The three factors of economy, liquidity and policy resonate and actively go long. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment. PMI rebounded for two consecutive months, the phased economic downturn slowed down, and the effect of steady growth will gradually appear. Structurally, ppi-cpi convergence is the main theme, and the profit distribution pattern of upstream, middle and downstream is improved. Economic changes are not the main contradiction of the market, but January is the centralized disclosure period of the annual report forecast, and the importance of performance will be significantly improved. The first quarter is a window period for further easing of monetary policy, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can be expected. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has not substantially tightened monetary policy. The situation in the first half of this year is similar to that when there was a deviation from the China US policy cycle from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is imminent. Credit easing is an important goal of monetary policy in 2022. Its realization needs top-down policy drive and bottom-up carrier support. Whether social finance can exceed the expected volume from January to February is an important observation window. Policies focus on steady growth, domestic demand as the main focus, bulk consumption and new consumption go hand in hand, new and old infrastructure work together, highlighting the connotation of high-quality development. In January, the local two sessions were held intensively, focusing on the formulation of growth objectives and the layout of key tasks and investment projects.
2. The main idea of industry allocation: “weak economy + wide currency” environment is dominated by growth, and the growth segments with good cost performance and clear industrial cycle are preferred, taking into account the consumption sector under the price increase logic. Specifically, 1) considering the cost performance ratio and vertical comparison with the consensus forecast of Wande this year and next, there is room for improvement in the performance growth of the growth sector in the automotive, computer, media and military industries, and the safety margin is high. From the valuation quantile, the five-year P / E ratio of the growth industry is lower than Wande’s all a position, except for power equipment, and the configuration value is high; 2) From the perspective of the rotation of the science and technology industry cycle, the breakthrough and development in the software field may become the main driving force for the valuation expansion in the expected leading capital market. In this round of science and technology cycle with consumer products such as automobiles and VR glasses as the carrier, the emergence of killer software and applications is still waiting to further catalyze the significant growth of sales. Attention should be paid to media, software development It services, optical images and other scenery continue to subdivide the track; 3) The value sector with oversold and deterministic performance in the early stage is mainly concentrated in consumption style. Among them, the year-on-year prediction of the performance of the food, beverage and household appliance industry in 2022 has significantly improved, has the momentum of valuation and repair, and has allocation value. In January, the preferred industries are electronics, media, national defense and military industry.
Risk tip: liquidity tightening is higher than expected, economic stall is downward, Sino US friction is intensified, and the epidemic situation is worse than expected.
