One week market view
In the last week of 2021, the market remained in a state of weak shock. The Shanghai Composite Index and the gem index rose slightly by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. The market environment has not changed significantly. In terms of macro environment, the mismatch between internal and external economic recovery still leads to differences in liquidity expectations, the accelerated spread of Omicron virus, the increasingly fierce geopolitical game and the increase of external uncertainty. In the market, the overall trading sentiment is not high, but the stock capital is relatively abundant. The plate rotation continues, the plates with higher early valuation such as food and beverage, automobile and public utilities are adjusted, and the plates such as leisure services, military industry and media are higher.
We believe that the market is still dominated by game shocks in the short term due to the pressure on fundamentals and the relative restraint of policy strength. In terms of structure, the current market wait-and-see mood is strong, so we need to wait for a new performance growth performance and policy force point in 2022, and pay follow-up attention to the release of the annual report performance forecast of listed companies, as well as the specific measures of steady growth and risk prevention policies. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological innovation and green transformation are the most deterministic direction under the background of industrial upgrading. The high boom track is expected to continue to rise after periodic fluctuation adjustment. In terms of scientific and technological innovation, it is recommended to pay attention to high-end manufacturing, digital economy, meta universe and other sectors, and green transformation is recommended to pay attention to new energy, new energy vehicles, energy storage Energy saving and environmental protection equipment and other industrial chains.
For the spring market, we believe that its essence lies in the relatively abundant liquidity and high willingness to allocate at the beginning of the year, which has an upward driving force on the market, the structural law is not obvious, and the performance of the industry depends more on the prosperity trend of the industry itself in the current environment. 2 during the period from 2010 to 2021, the cumulative rise and fall of the Shanghai composite index was positive from January to February in seven years. During the 10 years from 2011 to 2021, the cumulative rise and fall of the gem index was positive from January to February in seven years. The probability of the overall rise of the market at the beginning of the year is indeed higher. However, there is no obvious law in plate rotation. There is also great uncertainty whether the industries with good performance at the beginning of the year can run through the whole year. From 2010 to 2021, the coincidence rate between the five industries with the best performance from January to February and the five industries with the highest annual yield fluctuates greatly. Therefore, we believe that the performance of the industry at the beginning of the year has no obvious correlation with the performance of the whole year, The structural market at the beginning of the year depends on the market’s expectation of the future prosperity of the industry, and the performance of the whole year depends on whether the expectation at the beginning of the year is confirmed in the subsequent performance.
Focus of the week
PMI data in December showed that the economic boom was still weak. First, the new order index is still below the boom and bust line, indicating weak demand; Second, the production, new orders and business expectations of small and medium-sized enterprises have declined in an all-round way, which is significantly differentiated from large and medium-sized enterprises; Third, the index of new orders and business activities in real estate and infrastructure related industries declined, and the prosperity is still poor.
The CSRC issued the measures for the administration of commitment funds of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement and the provisions on the implementation of commitment system of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement to improve and refine the relevant statements and processes of commitment funds, which is the further implementation of the securities law, and also shows that the supervision attaches more importance to investor protection.
