Last week (12.27-12.31), the stock index opened low, the Shanghai index rose 0.60% to close at 3639.7 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.00% to close at 14857.35 points, the small and medium-sized 100 rose 1.78%, and the gem index rose 0.78%; In terms of industry sectors, leisure services, national defense and military industry and comprehensive growth ranked first; In terms of theme concepts, Lianban index, salt lake lithium extraction index and lithium ore index led the increase; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1010.558 billion, with a decrease of 6.95% over the previous week, including a decrease of 8.99% in Shanghai and 5.48% in Shenzhen; In terms of style, small and medium-sized stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.48% and China Stock Exchange 500 rose 1.11%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3730, up 0.05%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil rose 3.15%, Comex gold rose 1.04%, Nanhua iron ore index fell 4.70%, and DCE coking coal fell 2.49%.
Long bull set sail, sinking market value and style overflow. In 2021, the Shanghai 50 index representing blue chips in the market fell by 10.06%, the gem index representing scientific and technological innovation rose by 12.02%, the CSI 500 index representing medium market value companies rose by 15.58%, and the CSI 1000 index representing small market value companies rose by 20.52%. In February 2021, marked by the decline of institutional group stocks, the A-share market showed two characteristics of “sinking market value and style overflow”. The supply side reform at the end of 2015 and the covid-19 epidemic in 2020 will, to some extent, lead to the liquidation of tail enterprises and promote the headedness of a shares. Large market capitalization companies have performance advantages over small and medium-sized market capitalization companies. At this stage, the leading white horse shares perform well. In 2021, with the end of the epidemic, the promotion of antitrust, policy oriented support for small and medium-sized micro enterprises, new energy and other Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) cycles, small and medium-sized companies have performance advantages over large market capitalization companies, and the market style began to shift to small and medium-sized enterprises. Ning portfolio also replaced Mao index as the mainstream direction of the market.
The mainstream track is crowded, and the market style tends to the edge track. For institutional investors, in order to reduce investment uncertainty, they are the first to invest in the leader of large market value, which continues to widen the valuation gap between the leader of large market value and small and medium-sized enterprises. As the valuation of large market value leaders continues to rise and transactions continue to be crowded, the return on investment of large market value leaders is getting lower and lower. Institutional investors tend to adopt the market value sinking strategy to tap small and medium-sized market value companies with reasonable valuation. In addition, the mainstream track plate also has a transaction congestion. The return on investment of the mainstream track plate continues to decline, and the market is more inclined to tap edge track companies. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, under the background of “stable currency + structural wide credit”, continuous promotion of antitrust and crowded mainstream track transactions, the market will continue to favor small and medium-sized market capitalization companies and marginal track stocks.
Investment advice It is estimated that in 2022, China’s major asset allocation will move from the “stagflation like” stage (economic downturn + upward inflation) to the “recession” stage of Merrill Lynch clock (economic downturn + lower inflation). The recommended asset allocation order is: bonds > stocks > commodities. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may not be as good as that in 2021. We are optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sectors with booming production and sales. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (2) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with confirmed performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (3) Downstream consumer segment. In November, China’s PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year, CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, and the scissors gap was at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year, and attention can be paid to the food, beverage and home appliance industries; (4) Epidemic damaged plate. At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places with the weakest vaccination, which may mean that the global anti epidemic process has come to an end. In 2022, with the global epidemic situation under control, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged plate, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
