Biomedicine: the traditional Chinese medicine sector is encouraged, and the DRG / Dip pilot continues to be promoted. In the first 11 months of 2021, the revenue side increased by 20.90% year-on-year, the total profit side increased by 70.80% year-on-year, and the growth data continued to decline. In December, the policy mainly appeared in the payment link and traditional Chinese medicine sector. In terms of payment, the state accelerated the DRG / Dip pilot, clearly proposed to cover all qualified medical institutions carrying out inpatient services by the end of 2025, and basically realize the full coverage of diseases and medical insurance funds. In terms of traditional Chinese medicine, qualified traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions and traditional Chinese medicine will be included in the scope of medical insurance, and traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions will not implement DRG payment for the time being.
New consumption: consumption recovery is slow. 1) Education industry: the overall cautious rating is maintained, and the opportunities mainly come from the individual stock level. It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. The K9 discipline business was stripped off on December 31, and the negative factors were cleared. The company’s resources are expected to tilt towards the university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting. The process of new business from 0 to 1 deserves attention. The bottom logic is that the brand, human and material resources of New Oriental and Yu Minhong are still strong. 2) Pet and beauty care: at the end of the year, the funds were transferred to the undervalued sector. The share prices of cosmetics and medical beauty sector were in the period of adjustment recently. The double twelfth sales data and zero data of cosmetics society were under pressure. The sector as a whole needed to wait for opportunities. 3) Wine, tourism and Catering: the continuous and repeated local epidemic has led to the overall pressure on the plate, but in the long run, the concentration trend of hotel leading chains is highly deterministic, the market remains optimistic and the rise is obvious. New year’s day and Spring Festival holidays, peripheral / local tourism has become the mainstream, which is conducive to the consumption, wine tourism and catering sector in the province.
Food and beverage: food manufacturing growth picked up, Baijiu prices first suppressed after Yang. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of China’s food manufacturing industry was 9.0%, an increase of 2.2pp over the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry was 12.3%, an increase of 3.1pp over the previous month. In November, the total retail sales of Enterprises above the designated size of beverage was 26.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, an increase of 39.3% over the same period in 2019. In December, Moutai’s price fixing strategy continued to fall, and the price of famous liquor remained high. The wholesale price of Baijiu liquor was higher than that of the general index. In November, the output of beer enterprises above Designated Size in China was 1.87 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, an increase of 2.1% over the same period in 2019, and the beer output showed an upward trend. The latest data show that on December 22, the average price of fresh milk in China’s main producing areas was 4.30 yuan / kg, which is still at a historical high, and the raw material cost pressure of dairy production enterprises is still large.
Risk warning: (Medicine) policy risk; R & D risk; Market risk.
(new consumption) macroeconomic weakness risk; Long term risk of epidemic prevention and control in China; Industry competition intensifies risks.
(food) impact of macroeconomic fluctuations; Fluctuation of raw materials; Industry competition intensifies.
