Ping An View:
Macro events of high concern in overseas markets this week: 1) Biden considered nominating former Deputy Treasury Secretary Ruskin as vice chairman of financial supervision of the Federal Reserve. Raskin served in the Obama administration’s Treasury Department, which may push the fed to be more stringent in regulation. This position was previously held by Quarles appointed by trump. Progressives were dissatisfied with him because he was more friendly to Wall Street. 2) US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks on the Ukrainian issue. Russian and U.S. officials said that the leaders of the two countries warned each other that the escalation of tensions in Ukraine could break the relationship between the United States and Russia, but they seemed ready to promote diplomatic contacts. The game between Russia and the United States on Ukraine may indirectly lead to increased volatility in the global capital market, especially the prices of crude oil and other commodities. 3) LIBOR began to officially withdraw from the stage of history. After December 31, 2021, all sterling, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and 1-week and 2-month USD LIBOR will stop quotation, and the USD interest rate for all remaining periods after June 30, 2023 will also stop quotation.
Overseas economic tracking: 1) US economy: the number of Americans who continue to apply for unemployment benefits has dropped to a new low after the epidemic. As of December 18, the number of Americans receiving continuous unemployment benefits fell to 1716000 in the week, the lowest since the outbreak of the epidemic, and even lower than the average level of 1728000 from January to February 2020. The number of initial jobless claims adjusted by seasonal factors also decreased to 198000, while the number of initial jobless claims per week before the epidemic was more than 200000. 2) European economy: euro zone corporate loans accelerated in November; The market predicts that inflation in the euro area will continue to rise in 2022; The epidemic led to a huge decline in British air travel in 2021. 3) Overseas epidemic: marginal continues to heat up. Globally, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia increased from 1.98% in the previous week to 3.08%, and the growth rate is still accelerating, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases has also reached nearly 290 million.
Global Asset Performance: the stock market and most of the world’s major stock indexes ended with a slight rise. On the whole, the performance of emerging markets is slightly better than that of developed markets. Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur Index and India’s Mumbai sensex30 weighted index rose 3.4% and 2.0% respectively. The middle index and S & P 500 index of the three major stock indexes of US stocks rose slightly, while the NASDAQ fell 0.1%, while the South Korean composite index fell 1.2%, the worst among the major stock indexes in the world. Stocks rebounded strongly in the second half of the week. The NASDAQ Jinlong China Index rose 9.4% on December 30, the largest one-day increase since 2008. In the bond market, the implied inflation expectation of U.S. bonds rose again. The implied inflation expectation of 10-year U.S. bonds rose 9bp to 2.56% throughout the week, while the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose slightly by 2bp, which was consistent with the change range of the yield of 2-year U.S. bonds. For bulk commodities, the overall trend of bulk commodities continued in the past week. The CRB commodity index rose slightly by 0.6% throughout the week. The prices of crude oil and precious metals strengthened, the overall prices of black commodities fell, and the prices of base metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) main varieties rose and fell. As for the exchange rate, the US dollar index continued to fall, falling by 0.50% to 95.65 throughout the week. Most non US currencies appreciated, and the Canadian dollar and Sterling appreciated by more than 1%.
Risk tip: the overseas epidemic has intensified again, the overseas inflation is more persistent than expected, and the geopolitical conflict has escalated.
