Ping An View:
Real economy: the number of newly diagnosed diseases in the local area rebounded, the operating rate fell, the finished products accumulated, the margin of real estate sales and land transactions improved, and most of the prices of black commodity futures fell. 1) From Monday to Friday (December 27 to December 31), 656 cases were newly diagnosed in seven provinces and cities including Shaanxi, Guangxi and Zhejiang, more than double the 327 cases in the same period last week. According to the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on December 29, at present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, but it is highly concentrated in some areas and distributed all over the country. The epidemic situation in Manzhouli, Inner Mongolia and surrounding areas of Zhejiang has been basically controlled, but the epidemic situation in Xi'an, Shaanxi is still in the stage of rapid development. 2) The industrial operating rate fell. Most of the operating rates of China's industrial production fell this week. The operating rates of automobile tires, semi steel tires and petroleum asphalt units decreased month on month. Although the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly to 62.1% from 61.7% last week, it is still far lower than that in the same period of 2019 and 2020. The follow-up "steady growth" policy will continue to increase, but there is a time lag in the effectiveness of the policy. Before the terminal demand is significantly improved, it may be difficult for the prosperity of industrial production to recover greatly. 3) Accumulation of raw materials. This week, the iron ore inventory of rebar plant warehouse + social warehouse and port increased by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively compared with last week. The coking coal inventory can be used for 16.4 days, up by 0.56 days compared with last week. 4) The margin of commercial housing sales and land transactions improved. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial houses in 30 cities was 608500 square meters, with a slight increase in the ring ratio, which is still lower than that in the same period of 2019 and 2020. Last week, the land transaction area of Baicheng was 21.543 million square meters. Although it is still significantly lower than the level in the same period in 2019, it has rebounded for three consecutive weeks. In the past two weeks, the margin of commercial housing sales and land transactions has improved, and there are signs of stabilization on the demand side of real estate. 5) Black commodity futures prices mostly fell. Most of the black commodity futures prices fell this week, among which the futures prices of thermal coal, coking coal and coke of coal series fell by 5.0%, 4.2% and 7.4% respectively, and the futures prices of rebar of steel series fell by 4.5%. The trading logic of the futures market this week is mainly worried about short-term supply and demand under the spread of the epidemic in Xi'an and the coming cold wave in the south, which was mainly affected by the expectation of steady growth for some time. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose 0.88% month on month, lower than the same period in 2020. Specifically, the prices of vegetables and fruits increased by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively; The wholesale price of pork fell 0.8% month on month, falling for four consecutive weeks.
Capital market: this week, the capital level was slightly tight, most of the main stock indexes rose, the yield of main term treasury bonds fell, the US dollar depreciated and the offshore RMB appreciated. In the money market, R007 and dr007 closed 2.55% and 2.29% respectively on Friday, up 47.5bp and 39.2bp respectively compared with last Friday. In the stock market, most of the major A-share indexes rose this week, and small and medium-sized stocks and growth style dominated again. It is expected that the structural market will continue in 2022, and we can focus on the investment opportunities in the fields of "specialization, special innovation" and "independent control" mentioned in the national financial work conference. In the bond market, under the loose monetary policy, the yields of main term treasury bonds fell, and the term interest spread narrowed. At present, the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds has dropped to the bottom of 2021. However, looking forward to 2022, there is still room for loose monetary policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, and the demand for physical financing is low. It may take some time for the credit policy to work, and there is still room for further decline in bond interest rates. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 95.97 on Friday, down 0.17% from last Friday. This week, the onshore and offshore RMB depreciated by 0.05% and appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar respectively.
Risk tip: steady growth is less than expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
