panel overview
In early trading on Tuesday, A-shares rebounded after opening low, and fell again after 10:30; In the afternoon, the stock index continued to dip, and the Shanghai index hit a new low. On the disk, all industries are ink, and energy metals, securities, engineering consulting, batteries and other sectors are relatively resistant to decline; Coal, precious metals, steel mining,, gas, oil, electricity, nonferrous metals, logistics and other sectors fell sharply. In terms of subject stocks, electronic ID cards rose against the trend; Concepts such as combustible ice, low-carbon metallurgy, scarce resources, lease and sale rights, oil and gas equipment and services, coal chemical industry, green power, dairy industry and propylene oxide fell by more than 5%.
message surface
national Standing Committee: put steady growth in a more prominent position and ensure that prices are stable within a reasonable range
According to Xinhua news agency, the executive meeting of the State Council held on March 14 determined the division of key tasks in the government work report, requiring solid and strong implementation to promote the steady operation of the economy in climbing over the ridge.
us and Burmese oil return to the vicinity of US $100, and the international crude oil market returns to rationality
On Monday (March 14) US Eastern time, the US and Burundi oil companies declined following the decline last week, and are now trading near us $100 a barrel. The specific market shows that the price of American WTI crude oil futures delivered in April fell by US $7.36 during the day and is now reported at US $101.78 per barrel, down 6.74%. It once fell below the US $100 per barrel mark during the day; The price of Brent crude oil delivered in May fell by US $7.21 during the day and is now at US $105.13 a barrel, down 6.42%.
when the hedge funds fled 50 billion, international banks shouted “super match China”
Duan Yifan, a researcher of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Research and management department, told reporters that the external conflict pushed up the oil price, the market’s concern about inflation intensified, the overseas market adjusted sharply, the A-share sentiment was also impacted, and the Hong Kong stock market was subject to the additional impact of China concept stock supervision. The continuous decline triggered negative feedback at the capital level, which accelerated the decline of the market. However, Goldman Sachs said that at present, the Chinese market is oversold and maintains the oversold MSCI China Index. The agency believes that the fair P / E ratio of MSCI China should be 12.5 times, rather than the current 9.9 times, which is the lowest in six years.
Jufeng viewpoint
pre market judgment: overnight, the European stock market generally rose, while the US stock market continued to adjust, and the prices of gold and crude oil fell sharply; This phenomenon shows that the impact of the situation in Ukraine on the global market has gradually weakened, and the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike has become the main influencing factor. For a shares, the impact of the epidemic is still improving, and the Shanghai stock index is expected to bottom in the range of 3150 ~ 3350. At present, the market is more emotional. It is suggested that investors control their positions and pay attention to risks for stocks with medium and high callback of two financial targets reaching 30%.
morning trading A-share shock correction; In the afternoon, the stock index continued to dip, and the Shanghai stock index fell by more than 4%, breaking the integer mark of 3100 points and setting a new low for adjustment; The gem index fell, and the Shenzhen composite index fell by more than 3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell more than 5%
From the news side, the overall performance of the periphery was OK yesterday. Why did A-Shares continue to fall?
The main reasons are as follows:
First, after continuous adjustment, the financing market faces the risk of forced liquidation, private funds face the risk of liquidation, and public funds face the risk of large redemption. Therefore, when the market liquidity is still abundant, many funds choose to leave. If the trading volume decreases sharply in the future, the market may face new downward pressure.
Second, after the net sales of northbound funds of 31.6 billion last week, it continued to sell more than 20 billion on a large scale on Monday and Tuesday! The relatively undervalued blue chips have more positions in northbound funds. Their selling will further lower the overall valuation level of a shares.
Third, commodity prices soared, imported inflation rose again, and the US dollar interest rate hike will fall on March 16, all of which weakened the expectation of continued easing of the RMB.
recently, we repeatedly stressed that we should follow the trend and reduce our positions in time with the help of intraday rebound. At present, the wide range of market shock is an opportunity to sell high and absorb low. Reverse operation should be avoided by all means
investment suggestions: Jufeng investment adviser believes that the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates since December last year to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; However, the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom, so the trend of A-Shares has twists and turns. After the Spring Festival, value and growth rose one after another. At the end of February, the oversold rebound market fell behind and continued to find the bottom. At present, the construction of A-share bottom box is a good opportunity to sell high and absorb low. Especially when there is intermediate adjustment in the market, but there is no liquidity risk, it is suitable to reduce positions; The medium-term proposal takes growth as the main line, and individual stocks with higher than expected growth in the annual report and the first quarter report can continue to participate in the rebound.
