On the 14th, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets fell simultaneously: the Hang Seng Index fell 4.97%, the largest one-day decline since May 2020, and fell below the 20000 point mark for the first time since 2016; The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, led by the gem index, which fell 3.56% as of the close. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 969.9 billion yuan.
Respondents generally believe that the tightening of foreign capital liquidity caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is one of the main reasons for the current weak market. Looking ahead, China's "steady growth" policy is expected to work again, and the market liquidity expectation and valuation will be subject to periodic correction.
anti epidemic concept becomes the biggest highlight
Yesterday, the oil and gas and coal cyclones fell, and the consumption of consumer goods such as tourism and Baijiu fell. Lithium battery represented new energy track shares fell all the way, and only a few sectors such as COVID-19 treatment and testing became stronger, becoming the biggest bright spot in the market.
In the overall concept of anti epidemic, the trend of covid-19 treatment sector is stronger than that of covid-19 detection sector. According to choice data, covid-19 pharmaceutical sector rose by more than 3% as a whole as of the close, including Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) closure, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) sharp rise of more than 9%; In the covid-19 testing sector, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) and other stocks rose by more than 10%, while Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) and other stocks followed suit.
The strength of covid-19 detection concept was mainly boosted by the news over the weekend. On March 11, the National Health Commission issued the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection, and decided to supplement the antigen detection on the basis of nucleic acid detection. However, most of the covid-19 self-test targets opened high and went low yesterday. The index of the sector once rose nearly 4% in the morning and closed almost green.
In addition, yesterday, the electronic ID card concept stocks raised the daily limit, Hangzhou Everfine Photo-E-Info Co.Ltd(300306) , Linewell Software Co.Ltd(603636) daily limit. On the news front, the general office of the State Council recently issued the "opinions on accelerating the expansion of the application field of electronic licenses and national mutual recognition", calling for accelerating the expansion of the application field of electronic licenses and national mutual recognition, realizing more online, handheld and one-time government services, and further helping to deepen the reform of "release, management and service" and optimize the business environment, Continuously enhance the sense of acquisition and satisfaction of enterprises and the masses.
overseas liquidity tightening concerns
Yesterday, the northbound funds through Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect reappeared the sharp net selling trend, with a net outflow of 14.408 billion yuan throughout the day, a new high since January 27, and a net outflow of more than 50 billion yuan in nearly six consecutive trading days. After hours data showed that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and China stock market news were net sold by northbound funds of 1.556 billion yuan, 801 million yuan and 667 million yuan respectively Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ranks first in net purchases, amounting to 288 million yuan.
Foreign capital represented by northward capital, especially configuration foreign capital, has continued to flow out of A-Shares recently, which undoubtedly attracted more attention from the market. Market views generally believe that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is the core variable that has disturbed the global market recently. Under the impact of risk aversion, capital outflows have occurred in global stocks, bonds and money market funds, further impacting emerging market assets.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief overseas strategy analyst Liu Gang said that the recent global liquidity tension is mainly due to two reasons: first, the price volatility of various assets has increased significantly due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the sharp fluctuation of assets itself is the main reason for the local liquidity tension; Second, the risk exposure caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe, America and other countries, or the losses caused by the stripping of assets in Russia, will also cause the tension of foreign capital liquidity and counterparty credit in the short term.
Liu Gang stressed that from the perspective of fra-ois spread, repo market, commercial paper spread, credit spread, offshore dollar liquidity and the U.S. financial conditions index of the Chicago Fed, although there has been some tightening of global liquidity in the near future, it is still far from extreme situations (such as the 2008 International Financial Crisis) and will not expand into a global liquidity impact.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategist Zhang Qiyao said that in the short term, under the pressure of global risk appetite, the flow of foreign capital still faces fluctuations. However, in the medium and long term, under the background of large real interest rate difference between China and the United States, resilient RMB exchange rate, China's sustained and stable fundamentals and investment environment, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares will still be a long-term trend.
It is worth noting that in the context of the sharp reduction of positions last week, the northbound funds did not sell indiscriminately, but increased positions in public utilities, national defense and military industry, architectural decoration and other industries against the trend China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) statistics show that since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has actively arranged the steady growth direction of banks and continued to sell traditional heavy positions such as consumption and medicine. As of March 11, this year, the northward capital mainly flows into banks, non-ferrous metals and power equipment industries, and mainly flows out of pharmaceutical and biological, food and beverage and household appliances industries.
"steady growth" policy is expected to work again
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team said that the "steady growth" policy will enter the critical point of exerting force again: first, the window of China's monetary policy aggregate tool has not been closed in March, and the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points; Secondly, the main line of China's infrastructure construction has taken the lead, and the infrastructure projects, funds and implementation plans are ready. Subsequently, with the "steady growth" policy working again, A-Shares are expected to usher in a resonant upward trend of value and growth.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) chief strategist Yi Bin believes that looking forward to the future, with the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike and the superposition of China's monetary policy, there is still room for further force, and the market liquidity expectation is expected to usher in periodic correction. As the disclosure window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report approaches, the leading companies of the boom track with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment are expected to usher in a round of restorative market.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that recently, many key companies announced their operations from January to February 2022, effectively stabilizing market sentiment and improving optimistic expectations. A quarterly report may come in the middle and late March.
