Weekly view:
The central bank emphasizes meeting the reasonable housing demand: on December 27, the people's Bank of China held a 2022 working meeting, emphasizing the steady implementation of the prudent management system of real estate finance, better meeting the reasonable housing demand of buyers, and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
We believe that the mortgage delivery speed will continue to accelerate in 2022, so as to release consumers' demand for house purchase. In the second half of 2021, the main reason for the negative feedback cycle in the market is that under the condition of insufficient supply, the demand decreases at the same time, which leads to the deterioration of payment collection of real estate enterprises and further inhibits supply. Shortening the delivery cycle of mortgage loans is conducive to releasing the suppressed demand for house purchase and promoting the formation of a virtuous circle in the real estate industry.
The third round of centralized land supply ended in 21 cities: (1) on December 27, the third centralized land supply in Beijing ended, and 10 of the 12 plots were traded, and only 2 were traded at a premium. (2) On December 27, Zhengzhou ended the third centralized land supply. After 11 plots were cancelled in advance, all the remaining 14 plots were traded, including 2 at a premium.
2021 is the first year of the implementation of the centralized land supply policy, and the three rounds of land auction show a state of first hot and then cold. The premium rates of the first round, the second round and the third round (21 cities) were 14.7%, 4.1% and 2.4% respectively, and the flow rate was 6.3%, 41.4% and 18.8% respectively. Although the moderately loose rules of land auction led to the decline of the rate of the third round of land auction, the proportion of urban investment in land acquisition enterprises was relatively high; Except for some cities such as Hangzhou, the participation rate of private enterprises is still low. We believe that the supply side policy will focus on improving the expectations of real estate enterprises for their own liquidity, so as to improve the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land.
We believe that the current industry boom is facing continuous downward pressure, and the excessively tight real estate regulation and control policies will continue to correct the deviation, and guide real estate enterprises and home buyers to form positive expectations from the two directions of supply and consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of optimizing the competition pattern of the land market while improving the regulation policies of the head real estate enterprises. Recommend A-share leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , and H-share growth real estate enterprises Greentown China and Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (12.25-12.31): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 5.268 million m2, an increase of 3.3% over last week; In 2021, a total of 243433000 square meters were traded, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.6%. Among them, 1.113 million square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 4.1% over the previous week. In 2021, 43.775 million square meters were sold, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 2.842 million square meters, an increase of 11.5% over last week. In 2021, a total of 116.572 million square meters were sold, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 1.312 million square meters, down 11.5% from last week. In 2021, a total of 83.085 million square meters were sold, down 5.4% year-on-year.
Land supply (12.20-12.26): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 6.12 million m2. In 2021, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 1174.6 million m2, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.6%, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.44. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 5421 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 3165 yuan / m2, an increase of 13.8% month on month and 4.3% year-on-year.
Land transaction (12.20-12.26): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 22.58 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 816.1 million m2 in 2021, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 27.1%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 8342 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 169.7%, a year-on-year increase of 149.0%, and the overall premium rate was 3.3%. In 2021, the average floor price was 5254 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, and the premium rate was 12.3%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tightened more than expected; Regulatory policies tightened more than expected.
