Yesterday, zhonggai shares plunged again, and today (March 15) A shares were dragged down again. After the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, the initial performance of the stock index was differentiated, and the semiconductor and securities companies and other sectors protected the market, which prompted the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem to rise and turn red for a time. However, it was difficult to sound alone. The index then continued to dive. In the afternoon, the consistency of the three major stock indexes weakened, and the Shanghai index fell below the integer mark of 3100 points.
As of the day’s close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 4.95% to 306397 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 4.36% to 1153724 points; The gem index fell 2.55% to 250478.
From the disk point of view, the general decline market reappeared, and the local profit-making effect was poor. All sectors were “green”, while coal, precious metals, steel, gas, oil, electricity, logistics and other sectors fell sharply. In addition, in terms of subject stocks, electronic ID cards rose against the trend; The concepts of combustible ice, low-carbon metallurgy, scarce resources, lease and sale of the same rights, oil and gas equipment and services, coal chemical industry, green power and so on decreased significantly.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on March 15 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China carried out RMB 200 billion medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and RMB 10 billion open market reverse repurchase operation on March 15, 2022. The bid winning interest rates were 2.85% and 2.10% respectively. Today, 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MLF expired. According to the full caliber calculation, the open market achieved a net investment of 100 billion yuan.
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message surface
1. According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points faster than December 2021 and 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of two years in 2021. On the whole, the economic recovery momentum from January to February was good. At the same time, we should also see that the external environment is still complex and severe, and China’s economic development faces many risks and challenges.
2. According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 6730.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year.
3. According to the news from the national development and Reform Commission on March 15, the “14th five year plan” for the development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River recently issued by the national development and Reform Commission makes it clear that by 2025, the coordinated development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will make substantial progress, and the proportion of the total economy in the country will further increase, supporting the development of the Yangtze River economic belt The rise of the central region and even the country’s high-quality development capacity have been significantly enhanced. The comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network was further improved, with a total railway mileage of 14000 kilometers, basically realizing two-hour access between major cities in the urban agglomeration.
4. According to chinanews.com, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of the national economy, revealed at the press conference of the state information office on the 15th that the downward trend of China’s real estate has slowed down under the continuous stabilization of land price, house price and expectation. Fu Linghui pointed out that since last year, affected by multiple factors, there has been a certain downward trend in the real estate market. However, from this year’s situation, with the joint efforts of all parties, the operation of the real estate market has undergone positive changes. From the perspective of house price index, although the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased month on month in January, the decline was narrowing.
institutional views
For the current market, Rongwei Securities said that the market continued to plummet, which was greatly affected by the factors in the peripheral market. The sharp decline of Chinese concept stocks in the United States led to the continuous sharp decline of Hong Kong A shares. Technically, the Shanghai index broke the previous low or will usher in bottom reading funds again. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on low absorption. It is not suitable to hand over chips with blood in this position. Wait for the market to repair before choosing the opportunity to reduce positions.
What are the core concerns of the market crash? Ping An Securities pointed out that it has returned to epidemic control, less than expected liquidity easing and overseas turmoil (resulting in a sharp rise in global commodity prices). While the three major factors have brought great uncertainty, some relatively optimistic economic fundamentals expectations since the beginning of the year also need to be adjusted. At the macroeconomic level, the probability of consumption and investment in the first half of the year is lower than expected, and the pressure on overseas Chinese stocks is serious, which has dragged down the performance of the A-share market as a whole.
Guosheng Securities said that in the short term, the market is in the “domestic worries” of the late spring of the covid-19 epidemic in China and the “foreign aggression” of the stock market in the uncertain geopolitics, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the withdrawal of overseas funds. The impact on market sentiment may still need to be further digested, and there are some signs of freezing point. Historically, it is often near the bottom of the band.
As China’s “steady growth” policy moves forward appropriately and inflation pressure is controllable, the Shanghai index, which is at a relatively low valuation in history, is expected to desensitize to external disturbances and usher in a turnaround. It is suggested to maintain the allocation proportion of value higher than growth in investment. It is suggested that the central enterprises should make a logical breakthrough in the overall operation of “capital construction” and “low cost performance” before the overall operation of “capital construction” and “low cost performance” of the central enterprises. It is suggested that the central enterprises should continue to focus on the overall operation of the capital construction industry and the manufacturing market Fully adjust the theme sectors such as new energy guide.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that the market’s expectation of fundamentals needs to be adjusted urgently, and the grinding time of this round may be further prolonged. In the medium term, China’s repeated epidemic, shrinking real estate demand and unstable overseas situation will further impact China’s fundamental expectations and capital risk appetite. Affected by this, the bottom grinding period of the A-share market may be further prolonged, and we still need to wait to observe the landing effect of more stable growth policies. Considering that the market has retreated by an average of about 20% – 30% since the peak in 2021, the current valuation level is in a more reasonable range as a whole, and the possibility of upward rebound cannot be ruled out in the short term. However, the medium and long-term effects of the above influencing factors deserve more vigilance. On the whole, the macroeconomic and capital markets are facing a difficult environment in 2022. It is necessary to reduce the expectation of investment return in 2022 to a certain extent, select industries and companies with relatively high prosperity, and prevent industries and companies with obvious deterioration of fundamentals.
In terms of structure, the agency further put forward suggestions to pay attention to the allocation and cost performance of the medium-term profit boom upward sector. First, scientific and technological innovation and green upgrading industries corresponding to high-quality transformation, such as semiconductor, new energy, energy storage, new energy automobile industry chain, etc; Second, the inflation benefit sector. From the historical experience, the transmission of raw material prices and the characteristic background of this round of upward inflation, the petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors will benefit.
In addition, Wanlian Securities pointed out that recently, a number of companies disclosed their operations from January to February, demonstrating their confidence in the development of enterprises. The annual performance report for 2021 will also be released soon. It is expected that enterprises with good fundamentals, policy support and performance support will become the first choice for risk aversion funds. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the logic of the main line of “steady growth” remains unchanged, and large enterprises with moat advantages need to be selected in the sector; 2) The industry is in a period of rapid development. Enterprises with relatively stable operation and strong defense ability deserve attention.
