Key investment points:
Under the pressure of asset under allocation and the liberalization of trading rules, the microstructure was improved. Banks and insurance, including residents’ funds, poured into REITs for a long time, stabilized cash flow and countercyclical assets, and formed a valuation market at the beginning of the year. After the substantial rise of REITs at the beginning of the year, it is still in the third stage, with wide fluctuation. In our annual strategy, we mentioned that “the economy stalls, the debt side expands and expands under the wide monetary policy, and it still takes time to transmit the credit to the asset side. Monetary easing brings the expansion and expansion of the debt side from expectation to landing, while the asset side is still subject to industrial policy and credit risk”.
According to the financial data released by the central bank in February, social finance was significantly lower than the market expectation, indicating weak financing, medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents became the main drag, credit easing still needs to be implemented by the policy, monetary easing expectation is rising again, bond market expectation is reversed, and interest rates fell sharply on the last trading day of this week. We believe that REITs assets are still in the sweet period of macro environment-friendly before the implementation of further substantive easing policies, but due to the risk of overvalued value, the high volatility characteristics of the third stage will continue to be reflected.
REITs market continued to adjust downward this week, led by Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) warehousing and logistics REIT (- 10.28%). This week (2022.3.7-2022.3.11), the REITs index fell, of which the REITs index fell (- 6.67%) to 132.54 points, the management rights REITs index fell (- 5.19%) to 128.93 points, and the property rights REITs index fell (- 7.9%) to 135.55 points. This week the average increase is -4.51%, of which the red earth innovation Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) storage logistics REIT (-10.28%) led the fall. Relative to the issue price, the average increase was 32.54%. Among them, the rich countries pioneered water REIT (62.3%), Jianxin Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) Industrial Park REIT (50.03%) and laterite innovation Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) warehousing logistics REIT (43.13%), compared with the price rise of the first time three.
The transaction activity of REITs decreased this week. The average turnover rate of 11 public offering REITs this week was 2.15%, with an average turnover of 263 million yuan and a turnover of 51 million copies; Last week, the average turnover rate was 3.08%, with an average turnover of 373 million yuan and a turnover of 73 million copies. The weekly turnover of 11 public offering REITs was 1.313 billion yuan and the trading volume was 256 million copies, with month on month changes (- 29.52%) and (- 30.25%) compared with the previous week, and the corresponding historical quantile levels since listing were 27.78% and 27.78% respectively; The weekly turnover rate was 1.72%, corresponding to the historical quantile level since listing of 52.78%.
This week, the REITs of the park’s infrastructure was actively traded. The largest turnover of REITs in the park infrastructure this week was 559 million yuan, down (- 30.57%) from the previous week. The turnover of REITs in ecological and environmental protection, park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and warehousing and logistics this week were 211 million yuan, 559 million yuan, 286 million yuan and 256 million yuan respectively, down – 42.31%, – 30.57%, – 7.51% and – 32.78% from the previous week, The average daily turnover rates were 3.04%, 2.47%, 1.67% and 1.86% respectively. Since its issuance, the cumulative transaction amount of public offering REITs of park infrastructure, ecological environmental protection, transportation infrastructure and warehousing and logistics has reached 12.45 billion yuan, 6.071 billion yuan, 9.615 billion yuan and 9.138 billion yuan respectively, and the cumulative transaction volume is 3.396 billion yuan, 8.05 billion yuan, 8.62 billion yuan and 2.255 billion yuan respectively.
This week, the REITs valuation of ecological environmental protection and warehousing logistics is high, while the valuation of Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) Industrial Park and Guangzhou Guanghe is relatively low. Compared with the ABS valuation of CSI, as of March 1, 2022, the REIT of Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) Industrial Park (REITs valuation 3.11 / ABS valuation 3.01) and Ping An Guangzhou Jiaotou Guanghe Expressway (REITs valuation 13.05 / ABS valuation 14.41) were relatively low.
Risk warning: the future operation of REITs basic assets project is uncertain; The future cash flow calculated in the prospectus may not accurately reflect the actual situation; The progress of raising and issuing was less than expected.
