Market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.0%, the non bank financial index rose 1.3%, of which the insurance index rose 0.9%, the brokerage index rose 1.5%, the diversified financial index rose 0.3%, and the Hang Seng financial industry index rose 0.4%. From the beginning to the end of 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.8%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 2.7%, and the non bank financial index fell by 17.3%, 22.1pct behind the Shanghai Composite Index and 20PCT behind the Shenzhen composite index. This week, the top five stocks in the sector rose: Jingwei Textile Machinery Company Limited(000666) (6.36%), Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (6.05%), Gi Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300309) (5.40%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (3.97%), Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) (3.52%).
Industry key data tracking: the average stock based trading volume on Sunday was 1104 billion yuan, down 6.49% month on month. As of December 30, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1840.8 billion yuan, down 0.04% month on month, accounting for 2.47% of the circulating market value of a shares. The trading volume of Liangrong accounts for 7.65% of the trading volume of a shares. As of December 31, 422.5 billion shares were pledged this week, accounting for 5.33% of the total share capital, down 6pct from last week; The total amount of market pledge was 41266.6 billion yuan, accounting for 4.16% of the market value of pledge. This week, equity financing raised 6.1 billion yuan and corporate bonds issued 34.6 billion yuan.
Major industry news: ① the CSRC is stepping up the formulation of the reform plan of the whole market registration system. (1) Registration system is an important direction of capital market reform. The essence of the reform is the unification of the pilot registration system of science and innovation board, gem and Beijing stock exchange, as well as the implementation of the main board market registration system. (2) The reform of registration system is a systematic project including stock issuance, trading and delisting. From the issuing side, at the current stage, China’s registration system reform is mainly reflected in the transformation of audit power. The listing audit is changed from the CSRC to the exchange to audit the issuance materials. The CSRC decides whether to register according to the audit opinions of the exchange. (3) We will comprehensively deepen the reform and opening up of the capital market under the guidance of the reform of the registration system. We will comprehensively promote key reforms such as improving the quality of listed companies, improving the delisting mechanism, multi-level market construction, strengthening the reform of intermediaries and investors, improving the judicial system and mechanism of securities law enforcement and investor protection system, and promote key institutional innovation. ② The cbcirc issued the supervision rules on the solvency of insurance companies (II), marking the successful completion of the second phase of the “compensation generation II” project. It is of great significance to prevent and resolve the risks of the insurance industry, maintain the safe and stable operation of the insurance market, promote the high-quality development of the insurance industry and protect the interests of insurance consumers.
Pay attention to the trading volume of the stock market in January and the progress of “a good start” of insurance companies
Securities: the securities index rose this week, and the stock market in January is worth looking forward to. China’s stable economic policy is expected to be superimposed on the steady implementation of the capital market registration system and the acceleration of two-way opening, which has further opened the development space of the securities industry. We believe that securities companies with high growth and low value have higher configuration cost performance. From the company level, leading securities companies and some securities companies with differentiated competitiveness are expected to obtain excess returns. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) for the leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and obvious moat advantages in the securities industry, it is recommended to recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H); 2) For securities companies with differentiated competitiveness in the wealth management segment, it is recommended to East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) .
Insurance: the monthly premium will be slightly improved in November 2021, but the premium will still be under pressure throughout the year. The “good start” of 2022 is expected to be suppressed by the high base in 2021, and there is little room for year-on-year improvement of premiums. It is expected that the performance of the insurance industry is expected to turn around in the second half of 2022. However, considering the sufficient adjustment of insurance stocks in the early stage, listed companies can focus on China’s property insurance with significantly narrowed risk exposure and AIA, which is at the forefront of channel transformation, and long-term recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) for multi line layout of health and elderly care industry.
Investment suggestion: Insurance: recommend China property insurance, AIA, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H);
Securities companies: recommended Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H), East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate was lower than expected.
