Market view: interest rate hike is imminent, there is more flexibility, and the equilibrium should fluctuate
In the second week of March, the situation in Russia and Ukraine impacted the decline of global stock markets. Under this influence, the A-share market continued to decline, and there was no dominant style in the whole market. However, with the strong resilience of the A-share market on March 10 and 11, it is expected to gradually desensitize from the impact of Russia and Ukraine. For the restraint brought by the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike on March 16, the market has been partially priced, and there are expectations for subsequent fluctuations. It is recommended to continue balanced allocation to cope with fluctuations. In terms of configuration, short-term stable growth still has cost performance. In the medium term, we will continue to participate in the market in the third stage of growth, and pay attention to the overall opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the catalysis of multiple positive factors.
A shares have strong toughness and are expected to gradually desensitize from Russia and Ukraine. The global stagflation concerns caused by the tension between Russia and Ukraine and the dislocation of China's economic cycle, and the "pre delisting list" affected the impact on China's stock market. However, the recent A-share market has shown strong resilience. Subsequently, under the guidance of the growth target of 5.5% of the national two sessions, the inhibitory effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase will be limited. The slight depreciation of the exchange rate has not formed the pressure of capital outflow. China's economic growth is expected to rise quarter by quarter, and A-shares are expected to gradually desensitize from the sensitive points of Russia and Ukraine.
The policy is still in the overweight period, and MLF is expected to continue in excess. Micro enterprises need to pay attention to the distribution of liquidity among industries. The trillions of profits handed over by the central bank will release the positive signal of finance, and the subsequent monetary policy may still be loose to support the positive finance. The expiration date of MLF in March will be the window period for observing whether to cut interest rates and standards. In terms of micro liquidity, the transaction volume has broken back to trillion, the transaction amount of margin trading has soared rapidly, and the position index shows that the proportion of fund allocation has fallen recently. In the follow-up, we need to focus on the distribution of micro liquidity among industries.
The high export boom continued, the weak upward CPI indicated that domestic demand was still weak, and there was still upward pressure on PPI. The export from January to February is slightly higher than expected. It is expected that the export is expected to maintain a high boom in March, but the growth rate may decline slightly. CPI remained low in February, and the upward weakness of service CPI indicates that domestic demand is still weak. The year-on-year downward speed of PPI in February further slowed down, and the possibility that PPI in March was higher than that in February cannot be ruled out. The credit data in February is weak, and the growth data is expected to be limited due to the drag of real estate. The economic growth underpinned by "wide credit" still needs to be increased.
Industry configuration: interest rate hike is coming, continue to balance to
Before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the allocation continued to be balanced, the short-term stable growth still had cost performance, and continued to participate in the third stage of growth in the medium term. In the second week of March, during the two sessions, A-Shares retreated greatly due to the situation of the Russian Ukrainian war and the decline of global stock markets. In terms of rhythm, the whole industry fell to varying degrees in the first half of the week, but some industries rebounded significantly in the second half of the week. In terms of weekly growth, the performance of power equipment, communication, computer, building materials in steady growth, building materials, biomedicine, food and beverage and other sectors in consumption are relatively among the top in the growth style, which is in line with our judgment on industry configuration in our view last week. Looking forward to the third week of March, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. Although the interest rate increase market has been fully expected, there are still great differences on the range of interest rate increase and issues related to table reduction. Therefore, the coping strategy of industry configuration is still to maintain balanced configuration.
Specifically, the industry configuration continues the three main lines and two major themes of last week. Main line 1: the strong will always be strong and continue to participate in the market in the third stage of growth. Specifically, we can pay attention to the main growth lines such as dual carbon new energy vehicles, solar energy storage and semiconductors, as well as the computer, communication and national defense industry under the growth diffusion; Main line 2: add a stable growth chain with cost performance in the short term, and focus on new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as relevant opportunities such as real estate and banks emerging from the recent downturn; Main line 3: in terms of consumption, we will continue to look at the overall opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the catalysis of many benefits in the short term, and gradually arrange the opportunities related to dairy products, planting industry and chemical fertilizer with smoother price rise in the medium and long term; In terms of themes, we will continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; Risk Spillover of geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine; The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate hike has increased; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations.
