Consumption sector: the boom performance is divided, focusing on food, beverage and automobile.
In the past two weeks, the overall performance of the consumer sector has been divided. In terms of total consumption, CPI reached 0.9% in February 2022, which was flat compared with January. Baijiu Baijiu price is flat, liquor production growth rate decline, milk, fresh milk prices fell, the price of infant formula brands outside China is higher than the ring. The price index of traditional Chinese medicine rose month on month, the price of vitamin A fell month on month, the price of vitamin C remained unchanged, the price of vitamin E rose month on month, the price of lysine remained unchanged month on month, and the price of methionine rose month on month. In the fourth week of February, the retail sales and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased year-on-year and fell month on month; The total timber index fell month on month, the MDI spot price fell significantly month on month, and the TDI spot price fell month on month; Piglet prices rose month on month, pig prices rose month on month, pork prices fell month on month, broiler seedling prices fell significantly month on month, soybean meal and corn prices rose month on month, Shouguang vegetable index rose month on month, and fruit prices fell month on month; Yiwu Commodity Index rose month on month; In March, the Shanghai copper index rose month on month, the Shanghai aluminum index fell month on month, the plastic index rose month on month, and the comprehensive steel price index rose month on month.
Growth sector: the boom is divided, focusing on semiconductors and consumer electronics
The boom sector is divided. In electronics, the fee half index continued to decline, the decline of Taiwan’s electronics industry index expanded, and the price of NAND flash memory rose. In January 2022, global semiconductor sales remained strong, reaching US $50.74 billion, the second highest in history. In February 2022, the panel price continued to fall, and the decline of TV panel price expanded. In terms of electrical equipment, the price of silicon material has been relatively stable in the past two weeks, and the prices of photovoltaic industry chain have increased slightly. Among them, the price index of battery chip and silicon chip has increased significantly, with an increase of 1.06% and 0.67% respectively. In terms of lithium battery materials, the prices of DMC and lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte market have dropped in recent two weeks, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has decreased by 6.78% month on month. The price of lithium iron phosphate rose at a high level and continued to reach a new high. In terms of media, the film market has entered the off-season, and the film box office revenue and film viewers have decreased significantly. In January 2022, the number of downloads of global popular non game applications was announced, and tiktok won the championship again and again. In terms of new energy vehicles, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in February 2022 was much higher than that in the same period of previous years, Byd Company Limited(002594) was unparalleled.
Large financial sector: Boom differentiation, pay attention to banks
The financial boom is divided. In terms of banks, the social finance and credit data in January showed an upward trend, and the trend of bottoming and stabilizing was obvious. The short-term interest rate first rose and then fell, the long-term interest rate remained stable as a whole, and the capital side remained relatively loose. In terms of real estate, in February 2022, the house price index of 100 cities increased by 0.03% month on month, and the housing index of 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 0.00% month on month, with an obvious stabilization trend. In February 2022, the interest rates of the first set of housing loans and the second set of housing loans in 103 mainstream cities in China were 5.47% and 5.75%, both of which were 9 basis points lower than that in January. In the past two weeks, the transaction area of commercial housing has increased and the transaction premium rate has increased. In the non bank sector, the decline of premium income expanded in January 2022, the stock turnover took the lead in rising and then falling, and the trading sentiment remained low.
Cycle sector: the overall prosperity is upward, focusing on coal and chemical industry
The overall prosperity of the cyclical sector is upward. As of March 8, 2022, the commodity price index continued its upward trend. In terms of coal by industry, the spot price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal remained stable, the futures price of main coal rose across the board, and the coal inventory level in the port rose slightly; In terms of iron and steel, China’s iron ore and steel prices have risen, the inventory level of rebar and wire rod has increased, and the crude steel output and blast furnace operating rate have warmed up; In terms of international energy, the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply, the number of crude oil rigs in the United States has decreased slightly, the commercial crude oil inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market is expected to be tight; In terms of non-ferrous metals, the price of non-ferrous metals rose as a whole. Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of LME nickel soared, and the prices of gold and silver increased significantly; In terms of energy metals, lithium prices rose at a high level and cobalt prices rose slightly; In terms of chemicals, the chemical commodity index rose in the past two weeks. The prices of polyester and PTA in chemicals rose sharply, the price of PVC rose, the price of polymerized MDI fell, and the price of chemical fertilizer raw materials rose and fell; In terms of building materials, in the past two weeks, the cement price index has stabilized and rebounded, the market price of float flat glass has continued to rise, and the China bond local government bond index has decreased slightly; In terms of shipping, China’s and international dry bulk index rose in the past two weeks, and China’s export container freight rate index fell as a whole.
Risk tip: the prosperity index of some industries fails to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, resulting in the lag of the prosperity index, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc
