Positive and frequent at the macro level
The central bank turned over the balance profits and made efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market. Recently, the central bank announced that it would turn over the balance profits to the central finance, with a total amount of more than 1 trillion yuan. It echoes the statement on the source of financial funds in the "two sessions". Overall, the balance profit handed over by the central bank is a cooperation with the expansion of fiscal expenditure this year, further clarifying the source of fiscal funds this year, which is expected to boost the market's confidence in the strength of policies this year.
The establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund is conducive to preventing and resolving major risks. This year's government work report proposed the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund for the first time. The establishment of financial stability guarantee fund can effectively prevent the possibility of systemic risks and effectively prevent the spread of risks when the market encounters significant shocks.
Social finance in February was lower than expected, but there may be no need to worry. The new social finance and credit data in February were lower than the market expectations, the medium and long-term loan data of enterprises and residents were poor, and the factors such as the Spring Festival holiday in February and insufficient real estate demand may be the main reasons for the lower than expected social finance data. Looking forward to the future, the policy level will still provide support for credit repair, and social finance may still show a trend of continuous improvement in the future. In the history of social finance improvement range, the valuation of A-Shares (non-financial) also tends to increase.
At the micro level, early performance disclosure and repurchase deserve attention
Recently, some companies disclosed the business data announcement from January to February. Since Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the business data announcement from January to February on the evening of March 7, 79 companies have issued similar announcements, and the year-on-year growth rates of overall revenue and net profit were 36.3% and 77.8% respectively. Among them, the number of disclosure companies in basic chemical industry, electronics, power equipment, food and beverage and other industries is large, and the disclosure results are mostly positive.
The positive micro level is also boosting the market's performance expectations for 2022. Boosted by the disclosure of business announcements by some companies from January to February, the expected growth rate of the market for the overall performance in 2022 also increased this week, and the performance expectations of industries with more companies disclosing business data from January to February also increased. Recently, the repurchase of listed companies has also been relatively active, which also boosted market confidence at the micro level.
If overseas risks ease, positive factors will dominate the market upward
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine still has an adverse impact on the market, but positive changes are taking place. This week, the market is still affected by overseas geopolitical risks. But recently, Ukrainian officials said that "the two sides are close to reaching a compromise on signing relevant agreements", and oil prices also fell this week.
If the overseas risks ease, the positive factors of the A-share market may push the market upward. If overseas risks are gradually mitigated, the previously suppressed risk appetite may be gradually repaired. The macro and micro positive factors accumulated in the early stage of the A-share market will gradually become the focus of the market, and the A-share may also have a better performance.
The configuration direction is suggested to be "stable"
Main line 1: steady growth. It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue to work in 2022, and the "steady growth" sector in history has performed well during the period of fiscal policy. It is suggested to pay attention to the traditional infrastructure that is expected to directly benefit from the "steady growth" policy, including building materials, banking, real estate and other industries; Secondly, focus on new infrastructure such as photovoltaic and wind power.
Main line 2: consumption. In the government work report, many supporting policies have been put forward in terms of demand and supply to promote the recovery of consumption, and consumption is expected to recover significantly in 2022. It is suggested that we should pay attention to three directions: first, the high certainty of Baijiu and medicine and the basic industries of consumption allocation. Second, home appliances, new energy vehicles and other industries benefiting from consumption subsidies and stimulus policies; Third, offline consumer industries that are expected to benefit from the gradual control of the epidemic, including tourism and aviation.
Risk analysis: 1. The level of economic growth is significantly lower than expected; 2. Overseas geopolitical crisis continues to ferment.
