In the second week of March, A-shares made a continuous correction. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets made a sharp correction in the first half of the week and stabilized in the second half of the week. Finally, Shanghai stock index fell 4.0%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.4% and gem index fell 3.0%.
During the week, all the indexes recorded a green disk with a large decline, and the smaller ones were Chuang growth, Kechuang entrepreneurship 50, gem composite and gem 50. The indexes with the largest decline in the week were small and medium-sized 100, Shanghai 380, Shenzhen Component Index, China 800, Shenzhen 100 and other indexes. In the past week, most industries performed poorly, and all sectors recorded green disk. Among them, comprehensive, power equipment, food and beverage and other sectors decreased slightly. From the perspective of capital inflows, half of the sectors realized net capital inflows this week, and the pharmaceutical and biological, power equipment, architectural decoration and other industries mainly showed inflows. This week, the northward capital generally showed a net outflow, and the net purchase amount of foreign capital was - 36.32 billion yuan.
Meso observation: conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushes up Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price
The Russian Ukrainian conflict occurred in black land areas such as Donetsk and Lugansk, which are the main producing areas of crops, and the production, processing and transportation of crops will be adversely affected to a certain extent.
From the proportion of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) output in Ukraine in 2021, the output of barley, rye, wheat and corn accounted for more than 3% of the global output; Among oil crops, the output of sunflower seeds and rapeseed is prominent, and Ukraine is the largest sunflower seed producer in the world. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause a global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply gap, which will lead to the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price. In terms of grain, China's wheat is not affected by overseas imports due to its high self-sufficiency rate; In 2021, 29% of China's corn imports came from Ukraine. After that, it may turn more to special imports from the United States. Corn and wheat as the main feed raw materials, the price rise will lead to an increase in the cost of breeding enterprises. At present, the pig cycle is at a low point, farmers are suffering serious losses, and the clearing of production capacity will accelerate, thus promoting the accelerated reversal of the pig cycle. In terms of oil and oil, in 2021, 69.4% of China's imported virgin sunflower oil came from Ukraine and 28.3% from Russia. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia affected the export of sunflower oil, making the international price of sunflower oil climb, which will affect the balance between supply and demand of China's sunflower oil, and the market price of China's sunflower oil may soar. There is a certain gap between China's rapeseed oil output and total consumption. It mainly depends on imports to maintain the balance of supply and demand, and cannot achieve self-sufficiency. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia may affect China's rapeseed oil imports, affect the balance of supply and demand, and raise China's rapeseed oil prices.
Macroeconomic data:
China: foreign exchange reserves fell 0.2% month on month in February; In February, CPI was 0.9% year-on-year and PPI was 8.8% year-on-year; In February, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.2% year-on-year, lower than expected; New RMB loans decreased by 69.1% month on month to 1230 billion yuan; The changes of M0 and M2 decreased year-on-year, while M1 increased sharply.
Internationally: the CPI of the United States in February grew by 7.9% year-on-year, up 0.8% month on month; In the fourth quarter, the GDP of the eurozone increased by 0.3% month on month, and the real GDP increased by 4.6% year-on-year; Japan's GDP increased slightly by 0.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter; In February, Germany's CPI increased by 0.9% month on month and 5.1% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: the financial data in February was less than expected, combined with the severe covid-19 epidemic situation, the downward pressure on China's economy is still on, monetary and fiscal policies will continue to stimulate the economy, and new and old infrastructure will continue to underpin the economy. In terms of old infrastructure, we focus on investment opportunities in urban pipe network construction, while new infrastructure focuses on digital infrastructure and energy infrastructure. In addition, geographical conflicts and epidemics have impacted the global and Chinese supply chains, making it difficult to avoid the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices. In addition, due to the rise of raw material prices and the obstruction of feed supply chain, the pig cycle can be reversed.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic spread risk, and the implementation of steady growth policy is less than expected
