Recent capital market observation and Countermeasures
This week, we discuss the new changes in the operation of the capital market and the corresponding strategies; Short term capital market: in terms of liquidity, the two sessions set the tone, and the capital will remain reasonably abundant. Refinancing and RRR reduction are all in the toolbox. At the landing level, the former is more likely; In terms of interest rate, the rise of funds at the end of February indicates that the use of institutional leverage is approaching the limit of liquidity risk management, and reasonable abundance does not mean calm. At the end of March, the short-term interest rate will still rise as usual. NCD Market: the scale rises, the price bottoms out and picks up, and the term is still too long. It is still possible to cut interest rates, but considering that the current long-end NCD is still significantly lower than MLF, which is only a soft constraint, the long-end price is expected to rise at the end of the quarter. The cost performance of long-end absorption is reduced.
Financial bond market: the scale was significantly enlarged, the price bottomed out and rebounded, and the redemption of interest rate bond base fluctuated. From the reference of implied tax rate, with the rebound to the recognized range of allocation disk, the redemption tide will end, and the continuous rebound of long-end yield will gradually ease, which is still conducive to the issuance of commercial financial bonds.
Strategy:
There is still room for easing, but it may be the last step. The rebound has started and only the rhythm has changed. Assets and liabilities mirror each other, and the rebound of capital interest rate will gradually be conducive to asset allocation rather than debt absorption. When considering the early low level, if there is sufficient deployment, it is more suitable for dumbbell deployment at present. On the one hand, shorten the duration of the part within 1y, on the other hand, seize the loose end and land long-term debt, so as to make more full preparations for the comprehensive rebound in the future. Liquidity tips and Thoughts on next week's operation strategies
Next week, 150 billion MLF will be due on the open market, including 100 billion MLF due on Tuesday. The net issuance of government bonds will be 329.5 billion, the payment of government bonds will be 208 billion, the payment of local bonds will be 238.1 billion, the payment of commercial capital bonds will be 42 billion, and the payment of bank capital instruments will be 3 billion; The maturity of NCD is 534 billion;
The social finance data on Friday was significantly lower than the market expectation, and the capital level is expected to remain relatively loose next week. The continuous production volume in the open market will maintain a conventional low volume. MLF is expected to increase the volume, and there is a strong expectation of reducing the operating interest rate;
The relatively tight NCD long-term interest rate this week is expected to fall, but it is expected to rise to the peak in the quarter after a short fall; Thus, the liability side gives long-term compensatory absorption opportunities;
Key words: capital market, NCD, financial bond
