Key investment points
Thinking this week: with the rise of surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , how to choose the target?
On December 28, 2021, runmaide medical submitted a prospectus and went to Hong Kong for listing. The company laid out the direction of coronary intervention Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , which is expected to become the third surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) listed company in China after Tinavi Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688277) (orthopedics Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) (laparoscopy and orthopedics Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ). In the past two years, the concept of surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) has been very hot. How to choose high-quality targets in the surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) track? We believe that:
① Look at the market space. So far, the manufacturers who have developed surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are all aimed at surgical procedures with large volume, such as general surgery, orthopedics, coronary intervention and so on. On the whole, the surgical Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) penetration rate in China is low and the market space is broad. In 2020, the scale of Chinese surgical Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market will be US $425.3 million. Frost China predicts that the scale of Chinese surgical Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market will be US $3840.2 million in 2026, with an annual compound growth rate of 44.3%, much higher than the global 26.2%.
② Look at the commercialization ability. There are few surgical Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) brands listed in China, with low penetration and insufficient market education. Surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) itself has high requirements for doctors' operation. In order to improve the sales of surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the manufacturer needs to carry out a lot of market education and promotion, and has high requirements for the company's commercialization ability.
③ Look at product innovation performance. A large number of surgical Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) manufacturers pour in, and the products are easy to fall into homogeneous competition. In order to compete with overseas leaders, Chinese manufacturers need to have their own unique innovation and ability to solve clinical pain points. Clinical evaluation is very important. To sum up, we think that in the field of surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the concept is only temporary, and ultimately depends on the product performance and sales ability. It is recommended to pay attention to minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , Tinavi Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688277) , etc.
Policy interpretation: the Chinese medicine policy has been implemented and the sector continues to improve
On December 30, 2021, the State Medical Security Bureau issued the guidance of the State Medical Security Bureau and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which boosted the valuation of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces this week. We believe that the introduction of policies this week will change the market's logical understanding of traditional Chinese medicine:
1. From the perspective of quantity: for DRG and dip, traditional Chinese medicine has become a "place outside the law";
2. From the perspective of price: there will be no national procurement in the short term, but provincial procurement bidding is still the main method, and the price control is limited.
To sum up, we believe that the volume and price trend of traditional Chinese medicine is improving, and it has become a scarcity trend of pharmaceutical products. We are optimistic about the targets of consumption attribute, certain pricing power and large volume of prescription based drugs. We recommend paying attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Chinese traditional medicine, Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , etc.
This week's performance: Valuation switching and continuous brilliance of traditional Chinese Medicine
This week, the pharmaceutical sector rose 3.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.72 percentage points, ranking seventh in all industries. Since the beginning of 2021, the pharmaceutical sector has fallen by 4.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.81pct. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 561.5 billion yuan, accounting for 11.1% of the total turnover of all a shares, an increase of 3.3pct month on month, 3.0pct higher than the central level since 2018. In terms of valuation, as of December 31, 2021, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 34 times PE, up 0.9pct month on month, lower than the central level since 2011 (38 times). The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 157%, an increase of 5.8pct over the previous week, lower than the central level in the past four years (182%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the pharmaceutical sub sector showed an upward trend this week, except for biomedicine, which decreased slightly (weekly decrease of 0.02pct), of which traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces showed the most brilliant performance (weekly increase of 6.12pct). Considering that the classification of CITIC pharmaceutical involves cross businesses of some companies, according to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, the pharmaceutical sub industry showed an upward trend as a whole this week. The sectors with large increases were Pharmaceutical Commerce (weekly increase of 7.9pct), characteristic API (weekly increase of 6.7pct) and pharmaceutical services (weekly increase of 4.9pct).
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the "core assets" and "plate concept" in order to look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative medicine and equipment will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of "grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation". Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) Manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, recommended Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , etc.
2) Upstream: in the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, etc., we recommend Sensong international, Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) and pay attention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) .
3) Innovation: for international equipment and drug companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) Others: consumer attributes, medical services, innovative supporting industry companies, recommend Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk statement
Changes in industrial policies; The price of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected.
