Precious metals: short-term inflation supports the upward movement of gold prices, and long-term global monetary policy turns to build long-term pressure. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: at the beginning of the week, 198000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the United States, lower than expected and previous values. The global new wave of covid-19 virus has limited interference to production and operation. The U.S. labor market continues to recover and remains at a low level before the epidemic for several weeks. During the week, the ten-year US bond interest rate rose to 1.52% from 1.50%. Out of the optimistic expectation of sustained economic recovery, JPMorgan Chase expects the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to rise to 2% in mid-2022 and further rise to 2.25% by the end of 2022. The rise of U.S. Treasury yields may pose long-term pressure on gold. ② Inflation expectation: in the early stage, the Federal Reserve accelerated the implementation of the debt reduction policy, and the precious metals were short-term bearish. With the continuous news of production reduction of European zinc smelters, the contradiction of energy shortage in Europe is prominent, energy prices are further rising, inflation is still possible to continue to rise, and gold prices are supported in the short term. Implied inflation in the US bond market rose to 2.56% from 2.47% this week, and the real interest rate fell to – 1.04% from – 0.97% during the week. In the game of short-term inflation and long-term global monetary policy shift, gold prices continued to fluctuate widely.
Base metals: copper and aluminum inventories are divided, demand expectations improve, and prices are optimistic. (1) Copper: ① in terms of price, the current spot market is in the game of weak consumption and low inventory. It is expected that the spot price will fall faster with the recovery of inventory. At the end of the year, the core trading of futures prices in the market is expected to be the economy and consumption in 2022. The elimination of short-term policy uncertainty in the United States and the continuous release of favorable policies in China will continue to lead the upward fluctuation of high copper prices. The risk is that the recovery rate of global inventories is faster than expected. ② In terms of supply, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Julong copper’s phase I production capacity of 160000 tons is officially put into operation, and it is expected to contribute 120000-130000 tons next year. During the week, the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to rise to US $62.9/t month on month. It is expected that the spot price will quickly approach the long single price of US $65 / T in the short term, and continue to release the loose signal at the mine end as a whole. According to SMM statistics, the new refining capacity of copper smelting in China will reach 960000 tons in 2022, the highest level in recent eight years. The recovery of smelting and processing profits and the elimination of epidemic interference are the main factors driving China’s smelting expansion. ③ In terms of demand, the atmosphere is getting stronger at the end of the year, and the weekly operating rate of China’s copper rods has decreased for four consecutive times, resulting in poor demand performance. The stock holders continued to have the sentiment of low inventory and price support, and the spot remained at a slight premium, resulting in a transaction deadlock. The poor spot market in China led to the expansion of copper import loss to 400 yuan / ton. This week, the premium of imported Yangshan copper fell sharply from 88 US dollars / ton to 82.5 US dollars / ton again, weakening the spot support; (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25000 tons to 939200 tons in a single week, China social inventory decreased by 60000 tons to 817700 tons, and China’s appearance inventory was removed simultaneously; ② Cost: within the week, the profit level of single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) increased by 741.48 yuan / ton to 3971 yuan / ton. Indonesia will ban coal export in January 2022, or it will disturb the subsequent Chinese coal price, which may affect the profitability of aluminum processing again; ③ Supply: Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other regions began to resume production one after another, with an operating capacity of about 37.494 million tons and a new operating capacity of about 170000 tons. In 2022, with the dual control of energy consumption opening a new stage of index assessment, renewable energy such as hydropower will no longer be included in the dual control assessment index of energy consumption, and the production situation in Yunnan Province is expected to be better than that in 2021. On December 29, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the relevant introduction of the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry, which mentioned that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw material bulk products will only be reduced without increase, and the carbon emission of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 5%. This policy guidance means that the electrolytic aluminum industry will enter the era of “carbon neutralization” ahead of schedule, and look for energy-saving and carbon reduction channels in the aluminum industry chain, The release of production capacity to be put into operation will be more tortuous; ④ Demand: due to the impact of epidemic prevention and railway holidays in Xinjiang, aluminum ingots on platforms in Xinjiang are greatly overstocked, or it is a potential reason for the decline of inventory in Gongyi, Wuxi, Foshan and other places in China. After entering January, as the aluminum price is still high, small processing enterprises may choose to stop production in advance for the festival, and the downstream may focus on clearing the warehouse. We expect that the aluminum price in January may show a steady downward trend without significant fluctuations in energy prices. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metal: the price of lithium carbonate broke 280000 yuan, and the downstream preparation of cobalt enlarged the gap between supply and demand. (1) Lithium: at the end of the year, some manufacturers shut down for maintenance. This week, China’s lithium carbonate production was reduced to 3796 tons compared with last week, with a ring decrease of 15.12%, and the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 280 tons to 5863 tons. The gap between market supply and demand is still widening, and the spot continues to be strong. During the week, battery grade lithium carbonate rose again by 25000 yuan / ton to 282400 yuan / ton; (2) Nickel: the rise of nickel price and the weak rise of nickel sulfate continue to squeeze the profits of nickel salt plant. The cost pressure made the price of battery grade nickel sulfate stop falling and turn up this week. The weekly average price increased slightly by 500 yuan to 38000 yuan / ton, and the downstream procurement demand is still poor; (3) Cobalt: the epidemic in South Africa has hindered the logistics of cobalt intermediate products, and the cobalt salt plant is still facing the shortage of raw materials. Downstream magnetic material orders pick up, some enterprises may adjust according to the production plan of the Spring Festival, the stock volume may increase, and the cobalt salt price is expected to continue to rise slightly. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) . (Note: this week in the text refers to the week from December 27, 2021 to January 2, 2022)
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
