Market Review
This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index rose 4.31%, outperforming the market by 3.93pct; The paper sub sector rose 1.56%, outperforming the market by 1.17pct. This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.39%, and the light industry manufacturing (Shenwan) index rose by 4.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.93pct, ranking fourth among the 28 Shenwan level industries; In the secondary industry, the paper sub sector rose 1.56%, outperforming the market by 1.17pct. This week, the four sub sectors of light industry were packaging and printing, furniture, entertainment products and papermaking, up 6.56%, 4.56%, 3.51% and 1.56% respectively.
Industrial chain data tracking
In terms of raw materials, the factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) fell, and the price of foreign waste remained stable; The external price of wood pulp remained stable, and the spot prices of broad-leaved wood pulp and coniferous wood pulp increased; The price of dissolved slurry remains stable. (1) The factory price of national waste (excluding tax) fell by 44 yuan / ton this week; The CIF price of American waste, European waste and Japanese waste OCC main port in Southeast Asia remains stable; (2) The outer disk price of hardwood pulp and coniferous pulp remained stable this week; The spot price of hardwood pulp increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the spot price of coniferous wood pulp increased by 245 yuan / ton; In late December 2021, the wood pulp inventory of China’s three major ports totaled 1.56 million tons, down 13.9% month on month; (3) The price of dissolved pulp remained stable this week.
The price of wood pulp paper products was basically stable this week, and the price of box board paper fell. According to the average market price of finished paper including tax according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the price of double offset paper remained stable this week, the price of coated paper decreased by 10 yuan / ton, and the price of white cardboard remained stable; The average ex factory price of box board paper decreased by 108 yuan / ton.
The profitability of wood pulp paper products is differentiated, and the profitability of waste paper products is declining. The profitability is characterized by the price difference between finished paper and raw materials. This week, the profitability of wood pulp paper products is differentiated. The large double offset paper enterprises increased by about 27 yuan / ton and the small paper enterprises decreased by about 70 yuan / ton; Coated paper large paper enterprises increased by about 18 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 75 yuan / ton; White cardboard large paper enterprises increased by about 11 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 74 yuan / ton; The profit of waste paper products decreased by about 72-90 yuan / ton compared with last week.
In November 2021, the inventory of finished products of machine-made paper and paperboard increased by 3.4% month on month. (1) The cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard from January to November 2021 was 123.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; (2) Excluding the influence of price factors, the finished product inventory (estimated value) of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry increased by 7.9% year-on-year and 3.4% month on month in November 2021; (3) In terms of import volume of paper and paperboard, from January to November 2021, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 1.6%; In terms of export volume, the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to November was 7.0%.
Risk statement
The risk that macroeconomic growth slows down and terminal demand declines more than expected; Risk that the promotion of overseas new projects does not meet expectations
