Event:
According to the data released by the people's Bank of China on March 11, 2022, the scale of social financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan and RMB deposits increased by 2.54 trillion yuan at the end of February. The balance of broad money (M2) was 244.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.
Key data points:
Social finance was less than expected, and credit and off balance sheet financing were significantly dragged down.
In February, social financing increased by 1.19 trillion, far lower than expected, with a year-on-year decrease of 534.3 billion. Moreover, the stock of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year, down from January and slightly down from December 2021.
Further from the perspective of structure, RMB loans decreased by 432.9 billion year-on-year and off balance sheet financing decreased by 465.6 billion year-on-year, which is the main reason for the year-on-year decrease in social finance. Both government bonds and direct financing increased year-on-year, forming a certain hedge. In February, the government bond financing increased by 170.5 billion yuan year-on-year, which is mainly driven by the financial force. Later, it may still become the main driving force to promote the growth of social finance. In direct financing, corporate bond financing increased by 202.1 billion year-on-year, and stock financing decreased by 10.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
Residential loans declined, while corporate loans were relatively stable under the impulse of bill financing.
In February, the newly increased RMB loans of financial institutions amounted to 1.23 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion. Among them, loans to the residential sector decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 479 billion yuan; The enterprise sector increased by 1240 billion yuan, a slight increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year; Non bank financial institutions added 326.9 billion yuan, an increase of 309 billion yuan year-on-year.
From the perspective of departments, the decline of loans from the resident sector has dragged down the credit data, and the short-term loans have increased significantly year-on-year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and other aspects, February has always been a small month of credit, with weak consumption. At the same time, the situation of the real estate industry is still severe, the residents' willingness to buy houses is reduced, and the credit for buying houses is stagnant. Therefore, the medium and long-term housing loans are also declining.
The loan performance of the enterprise sector was relatively stable, with a small increase year-on-year. Among them, bill financing increased by 305.2 billion yuan, an increase of 490.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main contributor to the slight increase in enterprise loans year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans closely related to the economy decreased by 594.8 billion year-on-year. On the one hand, it is due to the depression of the real estate industry, on the other hand, it may be related to the lack of downstream demand caused by the rise of upstream commodity prices. From January to February, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises were 2.6 trillion yuan in 2022, less than 3.14 trillion yuan in the same period in 2021.
In February, the increase of fiscal deposits dragged down the growth rate of M2, and the willingness of enterprise deposits to be current increased.
In February, RMB deposits increased by 2.54 trillion, an increase of 1.39 trillion year-on-year. Among them, resident departments and non bank institutions increased less year-on-year, while enterprises, government institutions and finance increased more year-on-year. In terms of deposit growth, the year-on-year growth rate of various deposit balances of financial institutions increased from 9.2% to 9.8%. Among them, the growth rate of savings deposits and deposits of non bank financial institutions decreased by 4.1% and 2.7% respectively; The growth rate of enterprises, government organizations and fiscal deposits increased by 4.0%, 4.0% and 30.2% respectively.
In February, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the growth rate slowed down. The decline in M2 growth rate was mainly due to the obvious decline in the growth rate of unit fixed-term and savings deposits, from 14.5% in January to 10.8% in February, which may be the result of the squeeze of the increase in fiscal deposits; The unit current growth rate has changed from - 5.3% to 4.6%, which has improved significantly. It can be seen that the investment enthusiasm of enterprises is still good. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 4.7%, and the growth rate returned to the upward trend, which also confirmed the increased willingness of enterprises to deposit on demand.
Risk tips:
The real estate industry continues to be depressed;
Weak social demand;
Loose policy efforts to increase expectations.
