Events: in February 2022, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion, expected to be 1.45 trillion, and 1.36 trillion in the same period last year; Social finance increased by 1.19 trillion, expected to be 2.22 trillion, compared with 1.72 trillion in the same period last year; The growth rate of social finance stock was 10.2%, the former value was 10.5%; M2 was 9.2% year-on-year, 9.5% expected, and the previous value was 9.8%; M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was - 1.9%.
Core conclusion: the further reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is on the road (high probability in March), and the further relaxation of real estate is also on the road, but the actual effect needs to be observed.
1. On the whole, the credit social finance was significantly weakened and the structure deteriorated in February, and the lack of domestic demand was the biggest pressure, especially on the real estate side. In terms of scale, the year-on-year increase in a single month was significantly less, but the merger from January to February still increased more; Structurally, both single month and January February combination have deteriorated again: 1) residents' short-term loans have increased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease for four consecutive months, pointing to poor consumption; 2) The first negative growth of residential mortgage, with a year-on-year decrease for three consecutive months, points to the weak real estate sales, which also indicates that although there is a high probability that the regulation will continue to be relaxed in the future, there is still great uncertainty about whether the real estate will really improve; 3) The medium and long-term loans of enterprises have shrunk significantly, pointing to the weak demand for loans; 4) Bills continued to increase, but mainly impulse, and local bonds continued to increase, but the corresponding infrastructure projects did not land; 5) The growth rate of social finance decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 10.2%, after rising continuously in March.
2. Continue to remind that this year's GDP target of about 5.5% is the expected upper limit, which is very difficult to achieve. However, do not underestimate the country's determination and strength to make every effort to stabilize growth. A series of combination boxing have been or will be introduced successively, including loosening currency, easing finance, loosening real estate, expanding infrastructure, promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc., but the core is "releasing water, releasing real estate and infrastructure".
3. Four short-term concerns: 1) there is a great increase in the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement and interest rate, especially the MLF interest rate on March 15 or the LPR on March 21; 2) All localities are expected to continue to relax real estate regulation and keep an eye on the policy dynamics of "new citizens"; 3) The Fed's progress in raising interest rates and shrinking the table, with a high probability of raising interest rates by 25bp on March 17; 4) Steady growth effect, focusing on the high-frequency performance of real estate chain and infrastructure chain.
4. Specifically, the main features of credit social finance in February are as follows:
1) the new credit has weakened significantly, and the structure has deteriorated again: the first medium and long-term loans of residents have negative growth, pointing to the weak real estate sales; Short term loans increased less year-on-year in April, pointing to that consumption is still depressed; Medium and long-term loans of enterprises have increased less again, pointing to the lack of continued financing demand.
> in terms of total amount, the new credit in February was 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1.45 trillion yuan; From January to February, a total of 4.94 trillion yuan was added, an increase of 270 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, resident loans decreased by 336.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 479 billion; Corporate loans increased by 1240 billion, an increase of 40 billion year-on-year; Non bank loans increased by 179 billion, an increase of 161 billion year-on-year.
> residents' medium and long-term loans showed negative growth for the first time, pointing to that real estate sales are still weak, and regulation still needs to be further relaxed; Short term loans increased less in April, pointing to the fact that consumption is still in the doldrums. In February, residents' medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion, the first negative growth since the data, and a year-on-year decrease for three consecutive months; Residents' short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease for four consecutive months.
> the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have significantly "shrunk" and turned to a year-on-year decrease again. In February, corporate short-term loans increased by 411.1 billion, an increase of 161.4 billion year-on-year, and an increase year-on-year for three consecutive months, pointing to the high pressure on corporate cash flow and the possibility of impulse; Medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 505.2 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion, which failed to continue the trend of increasing more in January (it has increased less than the same period for six consecutive years previously).
> the impulse characteristics of bills are significant, but there are slight changes in the structure. In February, corporate bill financing increased by 305.2 billion, significantly higher than the seasonality (the average value in recent three years was 15.8 billion), and the impulse characteristics continued. It should be noted that at the end of February, the discount rate of 7-day and 1-month state-owned bank notes fell to near 0 again. However, different from December, the interest rate of short-term bills only fell sharply this time, while the decline of interest rate of long-term bills such as 3-month and 6-month bills was significantly less than that of the last time. Further observation is needed in the follow-up.
2) the new social finance was significantly lower than expected, credit was the biggest drag, and the main support was the increase of local bonds and the continuous impulse of bills; The growth rate of social finance fell to 10.2%, and the continuous rising trend was interrupted. Looking back, it continues to suggest that the growth rate of social finance is expected to rise steadily.
> in terms of total amount, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion in February, a year-on-year decrease of 534.3 billion; From January to February, a total of 7.36 trillion yuan of social finance was added, an increase of 449.9 billion over the same period last year; In February, the growth rate of social finance decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 10.2%, after rising for three months.
> in terms of structure, RMB loans increased by 908.4 billion in February, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion, which is related to the significant decrease in medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises, which is the main drag on social finance in the current period; Government bonds increased by 272.2 billion, an increase of 170.5 billion year-on-year, which is related to the accelerated issuance of special bonds in the same period (393.2 billion new special bonds in February, compared with 0 in the same period last year); Corporate bond financing was 337.7 billion, an increase of 202.1 billion year-on-year. In terms of off balance sheet financing, undiscounted bank acceptances decreased by 422.8 billion, an increase of 486.7 billion year-on-year, mainly related to the decline of bill discount interest rate, which led more enterprises to use newly opened bills for discount financing (the amount of bill discount in February was 1.1 trillion, higher than 0.7 trillion in the same period last year); Entrusted loans and trust loans decreased by 7.4 billion and 75.1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 billion and 2.6 billion respectively.
3) M1 rose sharply, mainly due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival; M2 fell again after three months, still pointing to weak real estate and low economic activity
> M1 in February was 4.7% year-on-year, up 6.6 percentage points from the previous month. Considering that the real estate sales in February were still sluggish (7.15 million square meters of commercial houses were sold in 30 cities in February, down 27.3% year-on-year), the high increase of M1 should still be mainly related to the wrong timing of the Spring Festival; M2 was 9.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, which was related to the slowdown of credit expansion. On the deposit side, deposits increased by 3.54 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which fiscal deposits increased by 600.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year, which may be related to factors such as profit handover and the slowdown of fiscal fund allocation caused by the Spring Festival.
Risk warning: unexpected changes in epidemic situation, policy strength, external environment, etc
