Core view
Look for "Mao, Pian" consumer goods, resource goods and traditional Chinese medicine OTC and OTC consumer goods with value return. The valuation of traditional Chinese medicine resource products has improved and the value of consumer goods has returned. The first is to take Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) as the anchor, in order to find the next "Mao and Pian": the company of traditional Chinese medicine resource category, which has potential varieties with both price and quantity rising for a long time. We started along the top secrets, secrets and secrets, ancient classic prescriptions and other varieties of traditional Chinese medicine. The second is the brand traditional Chinese medicine that has the ability to raise prices and is not sensitive to medical insurance, that is, the cost-effective brand OTC and OTC like traditional Chinese medicine varieties, and the mean return of undervalued stocks. It is basically dominated by brand traditional Chinese medicine with undervalued and steady growth, and has the ability to raise prices periodically. There are three key points for the smooth progress of price increase. First, the brand power is still there. Small and medium-sized enterprises in the same product category are not doing publicity, while large enterprises are still doing brand maintenance expenses; Second, it is more difficult to promote small varieties with high hairiness in pharmacies. The expectation of the dual channel policy will also affect the generic drugs with large price difference inside and outside the hospital, so it is necessary to find new performance growth points; Third, the pro cyclical price increase of CPI and PPI under low inventory. Pharmacies and e-commerce channels also like to see the price increase of brand traditional Chinese medicine. Channel providers basically will not increase additional promotion expenses and expand profitability.
The growth of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine and the re emergence of exclusive varieties
In the last two weeks at the end of the year, the market pays attention to the value of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, which is a medium and long-term good logic. The penetration rate of traditional Chinese medicine formula particles in decoction pieces is 7%. The increase in penetration rate means the increase of industry valuation. Competition, price and medical insurance are the variables that need to be gradually studied in the follow-up implementation process. At the end of the year, the national medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese Medicine released great benefits, the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and medical insurance supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine. Previously, the administration of traditional Chinese medicine and other departments also had some opinions to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine, but the medical insurance department has not expressed its position, and the market response is flat. From this opinion, two points can be summarized: 1. Medicare supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine with clear curative effect. DRGs are not considered or prioritized to be included in Chinese patent medicine temporarily, which is beneficial to the exclusive varieties of traditional Chinese medicine, including innovative traditional Chinese medicine; 2. Improve the accessibility of TCM reimbursement and expand the scope of TCM institutions into medical insurance, which is greatly beneficial to TCM diagnosis and TCM rehabilitation. This policy is substantially beneficial to the chain industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine and rehabilitation; The follow-up market will continue to tap the exclusive varieties and innovative enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine supported by medical insurance. So far, the valuation center of the whole plate of the traditional Chinese medicine industry will continue to move up. At present, it still belongs to the first stage, and the upgrading valuation stage of the general rise of the whole industry is still in a big stage β In transactional opportunities. Before 2013, the traditional Chinese medicine industry benefited from medical insurance dividends, and the performance of exclusive varieties continued to grow high; In 2014, factors such as traditional Chinese medicine injection and medical insurance fee control were restricted. Except for consumer resource products companies, the valuation of the whole industry in the traditional Chinese medicine industry is far lower than that of the pharmaceutical industry. In the last two trading days of 2021, the valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry exceeded the average of the pharmaceutical industry, which will be the formation of a new normal. In the second stage, the requirements for performance improvement, such as average regression of traditional Chinese medicine resource products, (OTC) and traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, will be reflected in the 2021 annual report; The innovation and exclusive category supported by medical insurance is expected to begin to be reflected in the second half of 2022.
Focus on the company:
1. Categories of traditional Chinese medicine resources, focusing on Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) and Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) ; 2. Brand (category) OTC key Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) and Renhe Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000650) ; 3. Traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, focusing on Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Chinese traditional medicine, Lanzhou Foci Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002644) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) and Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) ; 4. Innovation and exclusive varieties of traditional Chinese medicine, focusing on Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited(600332) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) and Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) ; 5. TCM diagnosis industry chain, focusing on Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) and gushengtang, etc.
Risk warning: market fluctuation risk caused by too fast short-term rise; Risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations
