New social finance contracted sharply, and credit and off balance sheet financing were greatly dragged down. In February 2022, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, 4.98 trillion yuan less than last month and 534.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the end of last month. Although there were large fluctuations in new social finance due to seasonal factors at the beginning of the year, the growth rate of stock social finance was lower than that at the end of 2021, or it indicates that credit relief still needs to be strengthened. By category, the new on balance sheet financing was 956.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.35 trillion yuan less than last month and 431.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year. On the one hand, the reduction of new financing in the table is related to the impulse of new RMB loans in January, on the other hand, it is mainly due to the weakening economy, and the financing expectation of the real economy is difficult to be reversed. With the expiration of the excessive policies of the new regulations on asset management, off balance sheet financing decreased further, with a decrease of 505.3 billion yuan in the current month, an increase of 953.2 billion yuan over the previous month and an increase of 465.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. Supported by bond financing, new direct financing was 396.2 billion yuan, an increase of 191.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, including 337.7 billion yuan of new bond financing, an increase of 202.1 billion yuan over the same period last year. In addition, due to the advance issuance of local government special bonds and the relatively sufficient project reserves, government bond financing maintained a year-on-year growth trend, an increase of 170.5 billion yuan to 272.2 billion yuan over the same period last year.
M2 fell and M1 rebounded seasonally. In February, M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year and 6.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The significant recovery of M1 was mainly due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival: with the change of holiday factors, the main force of deposits shifted from the resident sector to the enterprise sector. In February, the new resident deposits decreased by 292.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.56 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the new enterprise sector deposits increased by 138.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. The new fiscal deposit was 600.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45 trillion yuan over the same period last year. The increase in fiscal deposit may indicate that the funds raised by the current finance are still deposited in the financial account, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is insufficient, effective investment has not been realized in the short term, and it has not formed an effective support for money supply and social finance.
Bill financing rose, and the loan structure deteriorated in the short term. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.75 trillion yuan less than the previous month and 130 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In terms of sub sectors, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan less than that of the previous month and 479 billion yuan less than that of the same period; Among them, short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan, 391.7 billion yuan more than last month and 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year; Medium and long-term loans to residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, the first decrease since statistics, 788.3 billion yuan more than last month and 457.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At present, residents' demand for house purchase continues to be in a downturn. In February, the number and area of commercial houses sold in 20 large and medium-sized cities decreased by more than 25% year-on-year, and residents' willingness to buy houses is still insufficient. New loans from non-financial companies and other departments reached 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.12 trillion yuan less than last month and an increase of 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year; However, the loan structure of non-financial companies and other departments deteriorated. The new short-term loans and bill financing increased by 161.4 billion yuan and 490.7 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year, while the new medium and long-term loans decreased by 594.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. This shows that the current financing demand of the real economy has not improved significantly in the short term, and banks mainly offset the credit line through short-term loans and bill financing.
Further efforts are needed to broaden credit. Although there are some seasonal factors in the decline of new social finance in February, the decline of stock social finance growth may indicate that the current entity expectation is still relatively low, and credit relief still needs to be further strengthened. In the 2022 government work report, it is proposed to "strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools to provide stronger support for the real economy", "expand the scale of new loans, and maintain the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal economy", The current situation that financial institutions offset the loan amount with short-term loans and bills does not meet the government's policy objectives. Therefore, the follow-up "steady growth" policy may be strengthened, and more fiscal and monetary policies may be introduced in the future. In addition, the central bank turned over more than 1 trillion yuan of balance profits to the central finance, further enhancing the flexibility of macro policies. From the perspective of real estate financing, the 2022 government work report did not mention the real estate tax, pointing out that it is necessary to "stabilize the land price, house price and expectation, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies". At the same time, many places have introduced policies to stabilize the real estate market, and the weakening trend of subsequent residents' expectation of house purchase may be alleviated, so as to support the real estate sales and financing, The deterioration of residential credit structure may be reversed. Overall, as the policy effect appears, the subsequent social finance growth may hit the bottom and pick up.
