Innovation resonates with demand, and the innovation cycle with 5g, cloud, artificial intelligence and wearable as the core continues to strengthen. After the epidemic, 5g replacement continues to become an important melody in the smartphone market. IDC predicts that smartphone shipments will continue to maintain single digit growth in 2022, and 5g phones will account for more than half. The selling price of 5g mobile phone terminal dropped, and the penetration rate exceeded expectations. According to the data released by the China Academy of communications and communications, from January to November 2021, the total mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market totaled 317 million, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, including 239 million 5g mobile phones, with a year-on-year increase of 65.3%, accounting for 75.3% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. China is a global leader in 5g network construction. It is expected that 5g network coverage will be completed in major cities in China in 2022. At present, the overall industrial chain has returned to normal, and the production capacity of major mobile phone manufacturers has recovered. With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the consumption enthusiasm of Chinese consumers will gradually increase. With the centralized release of 5g new models, there may be a wave of consumption boom.
VR wind and cloud rises again, and multi-point flowering is applied. In the 5g era, a lot of processing can be done on the edge cloud through cloud computing. Doing this processing with high CPU / GPU will not consume too much power consumption. It can be quickly transmitted locally through 5g fast connection, which will strongly support the improvement of users' VR product experience. VR applications blossom at multiple points, with strong driving needs such as games, film viewing and live broadcasting. Games, video and live broadcasting are important applications at present. VR accelerates and enables downstream industries. VR has been widely used in real estate trading, retail, home decoration, culture and tourism, security, education, medical treatment and other fields. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the VR industry chain and the accumulation of rich data, VR will be fully integrated with the industry, thus showing a strong flywheel effect, quickly driving industry reform, giving birth to more business models and creating more business value.
Optical gold competition Road, mobile phones continue to upgrade, and there is a huge market space for vehicle optics. With high pixels and multiple lenses, mobile phone manufacturers promote the upgrading of lens specifications, the pixels of flagship models are constantly upgraded, and the lenses of China's high-end models are gradually transitioning from 5p and 6p to 7p and 8p. Adas has accelerated its penetration. At present, major car manufacturers have formulated their development plans for autonomous vehicles. After the introduction of high-level ADAS vehicles by global mainstream car manufacturers such as new energy brands, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Volkswagen, it is expected to drive the pace of automatic driving development of other fuel car manufacturers, and the penetration rate of ADAS will be further improved, which is deeply beneficial to the market of on-board lens and lidar.
Major brands wrestle, and the heat of folding screen is rising again. (1) Samsung Huawei leads the trend, and new models emerge one after another. Samsung and Huawei are one of the first mainstream brands to lead the boom of folding screen: Samsung flip, fold and Huawei Matex series have continued to produce new products since November 19. The share of 21q3 Samsung folding screen mobile phones is as high as 93% (2) looking forward to the progress of multi brand layout, folding screen mobile phones will be more prosperous and ecological! The first folding mobile phones of Xiaomi (mixfold) and oppo (findn) were released in 2021. At present, the selling price of folding screen terminals is mostly reduced to less than 10000 yuan, and the sales volume is expected to continue to exceed expectations in 2022.
Apple's miniled backlight landed and the market space quickly opened. In 2021, global core consumer electronics leaders apple and Samsung launched miniled backlight product line, leading the miniled market, and more and more brand manufacturers have introduced this technology. In 2022, miniled is expected to open a penetration situation in many fields such as TV, laptop, display, tablet, vehicle, headset and so on. The mainland optoelectronic industry chain has deeply cultivated miniled technology and products, accumulated profound layout, and is expected to benefit from the dividends of the industry. Looking forward to the next three to five years, the miniled industry is expected to maintain a high industry growth rate and bring enough attractive value increment to the industrial chain. 2021-2022 will be the starting year for the release of value increment.
The growth of the Internet of things and new energy vehicles has opened up the growth space of passive components, domestic manufacturers have accelerated the expansion of production, and domestic substitution has continued to deepen. According to Murata, the number of IOT equipment will increase from 181 million in 20 years to 241 million in 25 years and 296 in 30 years; 2020-2025CAGR5. 89%。 In addition, in recent years, wearable devices such as TWS headphones and smart watches have sprung up. The rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, automatic driving and the popularity of the Internet of vehicles will become the three major Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) for the increase of single vehicle MLCC consumption.
The pattern of panel factory is optimized, and the periodicity of profitability is expected to weaken. The overall revenue and profit of the panel core company grow rapidly. Whether it is short-term capacity release and price repair, or the end of long-term production expansion and pattern optimization, it is conducive to the enhancement of the leading power of the industry. The overall competitiveness of industry leading manufacturers continues to improve, and its scale effect and profit center are expected to improve. Even if the TV panel price is disturbed in the short term, the bottom of the profit center of the panel core company will be much higher than the history, the periodicity of the report profit is expected to be weakened, and the indicators such as operating cash flow and free cash flow are expected to be greatly optimized. Looking forward to 2022h1, TV panel prices are expected to stabilize and recover, the product structure of core companies will continue to be optimized, and the overall profit space will be further opened.
The security industry recovered significantly, and data analysis opened the second growth curve. The traditional main business of security is expected to benefit from the potential of financial elasticity in 2022, and new businesses such as data analysis and innovation will continue to lead the growth. With the development of aiot technology and industry, the demand for smart video IOT will be greatly opened. Therefore, we expect the intelligent development of video IOT, the gradual extension of application scenarios, the continuous expansion of market space and the continuous strengthening of leading competitiveness. Looking forward to 2022h1, this trend is expected to be further strengthened. Security core companies Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) have the ability to provide intelligent algorithms, software platforms, hardware families and one-stop services, which will play an important role.
[Apple chain faucet] Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) , Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) etc;
[optics] sunny optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) etc;
[consumer electronics] Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) , Gettopacoustic Co.Ltd(002655) , Shenzhen Jpt Opto-Electronics Co.Ltd(688025) , Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603626) , Suzhou Secote Precision Electronic Co.Ltd(603283) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) ;
[MiniLED] Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) 、 Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) 、 Ningbo Exciton Technology Co.Ltd(300566) 、 Ningbo Solartron Technology Co.Ltd(688299) 、 Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) 、 Hongli Zhihui Group Co.Ltd(300219) 、 Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.Ltd(300752) ；
[passive element] Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) , Guang Dong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding) Co.Ltd(000636) ;
[panel] Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) ;
[PCB] Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) 、 Shengyi Technology Co.Ltd(600183) 、 Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) 、 Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou)Co.Ltd(300476) 、 Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) 、 Xiamen Hongxin Electronics Technology Group Inc(300657) ；
[security] Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) .
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of Sino US science and technology friction, the risk of epidemic affecting the supply chain, and the risk of continuous tension in the supply chain.
