Key investment points:
Under the overall tight real estate policy in the second half of 2021, the central economic work conference set the macro policy in 2022 as steady and effective, and steadily promoted the concentration management of real estate loans, so as to realize the healthy and stable development of the real estate market. In addition, the real estate tax is not expected to be launched in the near future. The tone of the whole real estate industry is to make progress while maintaining stability. The industry demand may recover after reaching the bottom in 2022. The periodic effect of capital construction in advance plus special debt transmission appears, and the demand is expected to start to pick up at the beginning of 2022. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice, the main purpose of which is to support powerful real estate enterprises to acquire high-quality projects with broken capital chain, hold the bottom line of guaranteed delivery of buildings, ensure the steady promotion of real estate construction projects, and it is expected that the completed area in 2022 will be effectively guaranteed. In December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance for 2022, focusing on transportation infrastructure, which is in line with the goal of “promoting the formation of physical workload by the end of this year (2021) and the beginning of next year (2022)” put forward at the 730 Politburo meeting. It is expected that the amount of infrastructure investment in 2022 will be strongly guaranteed. Infrastructure, green building, new energy and other related building sub fields are expected to benefit, with emphasis on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued the notice on the implementation plan of invigorating industrial economic operation and promoting high-quality industrial development. In terms of strengthening the guidance of energy efficiency standards, the plan puts forward the requirements of scientifically determining the benchmark level and benchmark level of energy efficiency in key areas and increasing the capacity-saving degree of key industries. As the iron and steel and cement industries that contribute more to carbon emissions, energy-saving and emission reduction technology is the key to achieve low-carbon and environmental protection, and the industry leading enterprises with sufficient technical reserves and complete scientific research team will quickly reach the “double control” standard relying on their own advantages. Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) are recommended.
The central economic work conference proposed to improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and increase the intensity of tackling key problems of important products and core technologies. The “construction +” industrial field is expected to receive more national support and fulfill its fundamentals. China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) is recommended.
Prefabricated buildings are an important measure to develop zero carbon buildings, and the penetration rate will continue to increase. Recently, the “14th five year plan” of the industry and the long-term goal of 2035 issued by China Steel Structure Association put forward that by 2025, the consumption of steel structures in China will reach about 140 million tons, accounting for more than 15% of the crude steel output, and steel structure buildings account for more than 15% of the new building area. At present, the industry is still a certain distance from the above goals, and the market space is large. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , and Yuanda residential workers.
Risk tip: the impact of some real estate enterprises continues to spread; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes in the macro environment.
