In February, the new energy vehicle market recovered and maintained a high outlook in the industry. In mid February, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the market were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 197.5% and 184.3%, a month on month decrease of 18.6% and 22.6%, and the overall production and sales recovered significantly. In terms of brands and models, the Byd Company Limited(002594) Dynasty made another good performance in the off-season, and Wuling Hongguang Mini ranked first in sales. The performance of the new forces of making cars was still strong, and Nezha’s performance was eye-catching and rushed into the front-line camp of the new forces. High quality models continue to be launched, and the prosperity of the new energy market will be further improved. It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to reach 11 million in 2025, the CAGR will reach 35.1% in four years, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 39%.
The loading volume of power batteries rebounded significantly, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate led by three yuan. In February, the output of power battery continued to rise, with a total of 31.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of 236.2% and a month on month increase of 7.1%, an increase of 2.1gwh compared with that in January this year. In February, the loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries totaled 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 15.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 22.8 percentage points compared with January, and continued to maintain a significant growth year-on-year. On the whole, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) dominates the list, and the industry concentration is obvious. From the perspective of technical route, the total loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery in February was 7.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 247.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 12.3%, and the market share reached 56.89%, further increasing by 2.06 percentage points compared with 54.83% in January this year. At present, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranks first in the world in terms of loading capacity, and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises have risen to achieve anti overtaking. The global high-quality supply continues to expand, and the total capacity planning will reach a new high in the future. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the downstream is full of momentum, and the loading volume of power batteries continues to increase. The production of power battery is still full, and the battery industry chain maintains a high momentum.
The charging infrastructure continues to be matched, and the power exchange layout accelerates the evolution of the power battery market. From the perspective of charging infrastructure, the number of public charging piles in February reached 1.213 million, an increase of 36000 compared with January this year, and the increment ratio of pile vehicles from January to February was 1:3.1. In terms of charging capacity, the total national charging power in February was about 1.180 billion kwh, a decrease of 73 million kwh compared with January, a year-on-year decrease of 73% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.7%. On the whole, at present, the construction area of charging piles in China is relatively centralized, the concentration of charging power is high, and the charging demand of frequent blowing of policy warm air is expanded, driving the rapid promotion of power exchange facilities. The proportion of public charging infrastructure built in the top 10 regions in China is as high as 71.9%, and the total charging capacity in the top 10 regions is as high as 774 million kwh, accounting for 65.59% in total. Among the top 10 regions, Guangdong Province ranks first in the ownership of public charging piles and charging power, and Beijing ranks first in the total number of replacement power stations. The number of power exchange stations of major power exchange operators is still increasing, and the coverage is gradually expanding. All manufacturers actively arrange charging and replacement services, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) actively promote the application of power replacement heavy card, Weilai continues to arrange the field of power replacement, promote the evolution of electric vehicle industry and speed up the process of industrial electrification.
Investment suggestions: 1) the long-term competition pattern is better and there are marginal changes in the short term. Recommended: 750 ; b. Diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; c. Thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ; d. High voltage DC: ; e. Thin film capacitance: Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , it is recommended to pay attention to Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) etc. 2) 4680 technology iteration, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain. 4680 can achieve 210wh / kg at present. If high nickel 91 series and silicon carbon negative electrode are used in the subsequent system, the energy density of the system may be close to 270wh / kg, which can greatly solve the problem of heat management of high nickel series. Key points: A. large cylindrical shell: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ; b. High nickel positive electrode: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ; c. Layout lifsi: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . 3) Look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. Focus on: A. diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; b. Copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) ; c. Negative pole: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) upstream raw materials rose more than expected. If the prices of upstream lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and nickel cobalt manganese metal rise more than expected, it may affect the downstream demand. 2) The terminal demand is lower than expected. The decline of subsidies and changes in consumers’ disposable income may affect end demand.
