Core view
In 2022, we are optimistic about the recovery of the breeding sector and the resonance between the cycle and growth of the seed industry sector. Specifically: 1) live pigs: according to the announcement of the Ministry of agriculture, as of the end of January, the number of sows that can be bred in China was 42.9 million, a month on month decrease of 0.9%, and the trend of capacity elimination continued. We believe that 2022 is the best stage to arrange the pig sector in advance, because the pig cycle is likely to reverse the market in 2023. In addition, the recent rise in the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle and further strengthen the expectation of sector reversal. At the same time, meat products benefit from the downward price of pigs, and the profit is expected to further improve in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention. 2) Yellow feather broiler: according to the data of the industry association, the stock of yellow chicken’s parents at the end of 2021 is at the lowest level in three years, and the trend of capacity elimination is still continuing. It is expected that the profit of yellow chicken breeding may improve from 2022. 3) Seed industry: from the perspective of cycle, the price fundamentals of wheat and corn in China will be strongly supported in 2022. In the winter of 2021, the main wheat producing areas will have problems of late sowing and low germination rate. The output may be reduced in 2022. Due to the substitution relationship between wheat and corn, the price of corn is also expected to strengthen. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine, as major exporters of barley, wheat, corn and sunflower oil, the conflict situation between the two sides is not clear, which may lead to further tightening of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply. It is expected that global food prices will continue to operate at a high level. Therefore, as the post grain price cycle, the seed industry sector will be in the performance release channel in the next two years; The improvement of supply and demand structure of corn seeds in China is also expected to usher in the reversal of inventory cycle. In addition, the accelerated landing of GM will bring variety generation changes to the industry, the leading enterprises will usher in the high-speed growth stage of price rise and market share increase, and the industry will usher in the resonance between cycle and growth.
The overall investment view of agriculture is as follows. It is optimistic about breeding and seed industry from top to bottom. Among them, 1) recommendations for pig breeding include: 1) recommendations for pig breeding: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 840 the; 2) Recommended by seed industry Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; 3) Recommended for poultry sector: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the targets of white chicken: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price tracking:
Live pigs: on March 11, the national average price of piglets was 23.96 yuan / kg, unchanged from the same period last week; Sanyuan pigs across the country fell to 12.01 yuan / kg, down 2.83% from the same period last week.
Poultry: on March 11, the price of white feather broiler was 7.85 yuan / kg, up 5.22% from the same period last week, and the price is still at a record low.
Soybeans: the spot price of Chinese soybeans remained high this week, reaching 533895 yuan / ton on March 11.
Corn: the purchase price of corn this week was slightly adjusted at a high level, which was 272802 yuan / ton on March 11.
Risk warning: uncertainty risk caused by bad weather; Potential risks caused by uncontrollable animal outbreaks.
