Core view
Pig: the production capacity continued to be reduced, and the pig price decreased slightly. The average price of pigs in the last week of 2021 was 16.30 yuan / kg, with a slight increase of 1.9% on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 54%. At the end of the year, the price of pigs showed a trend of gradual decline, but the decline was small. In terms of supply, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises above Designated Size in the current month was 26.49 million, a decrease of 12.4% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. The decline in supply basically matched the recovery of pig prices in November; In terms of production capacity, at the end of November, the number of fertile sows was 42.96 million, a month on month decrease of 1.2%, and the year-on-year increase narrowed to 4.7%, equivalent to 104.8% of the normal population. The month on month decrease of fertile sows narrowed compared with the high decline in previous months, but it still reflected that the production capacity was in a continuous state of de industrialization. From the perspective of price at the end of the year and the pace of capacity removal, we maintain the previous forecast of pig price in 22 years. It is expected that the annual average price may be about 15 yuan / kg, the pig price at the beginning of Q2 bottomed out twice, and the Q3 pig price turned positive year-on-year.
Broiler: the performance of white chicken was flat, while that of yellow chicken fell back. In terms of white chicken, the average price of wool chicken in the main producing areas at the end of 2021 was 7.97 yuan / kg, a slight decrease of 0.1% month on month and 2.1% year-on-year. The overall operation was about 8 yuan / kg from November to December, with a small price fluctuation; The average price of chicken products in the main producing areas was 9.62 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis and year-on-year basis. In terms of yellow chicken, the selling price of fast big chicken at the end of 2021 was 13.54 yuan / kg, down 2.6% month on month and 3.3% year-on-year, down from the high of 14.36 yuan / kg in mid December; The market price of medium speed chicken was 14.58 yuan / kg, up 1.4% month on month, down 2.4% year-on-year, and the high point in mid December was 15.36 yuan / kg.
Feed: the growth rate of pig feed narrowed, and the poultry feed continued to be depressed. In November, the growth pressure of the feed industry appeared. In that month, the national total feed output was 24.57 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%. On the one hand, poultry feed continued to be weak, with egg and meat feed falling by 3.6% and 8.3% respectively year-on-year; On the other hand, the growth rate of pig feed narrowed compared with the previous period. The year-on-year growth rate of pig feed in the current month was 12.9%, while the cumulative growth rate in the previous 11 months was 44.9%.
Planting: the seed industry policy is promoted, and the policy points to the expansion of soybean planting. In terms of seeds, in December, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress really passed the amendment to the seed law, which will go into effect on March 1, 2022; On December 27, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the naming of transgenic plant varieties, including three transgenic maize seed varieties from Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Hangzhou Ruifeng and China Agricultural University. In terms of bulk, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the grain production data in 2021. The Ministry of agriculture increased the area and yield of corn by about 5%, reduced the area and yield of soybean by about 10% and 16%. In December 2021, the central rural work conference and the director general’s meeting of the national Department of agriculture and rural areas were held successively, both of which emphasized that expanding soybean oil production must be completed as a major political task next year, and promoting strip compound planting of corn and soybean.
Investment proposal and investment object
Main line configuration: 1) under the expectation of falling pig price and capacity deregulation, we believe that pig breeding is the plate with the highest certainty in 2022. The second bottom of pig price in Q2 and the year-on-year positive of Q3 correspond to the expected deduction of plate reversal and the expected configuration node of rising pig price respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , etc. Broilers are suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Wellhope Foods Co.Ltd(603609) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) , and Fengxiang shares. 2) The recovery of pig prices has brought about profit restoration and sow supplement. The second half of the year ushered in the allocation time point of the post breeding cycle plate, focusing on Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Theme configuration: 1) seed industry: the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is gradually promoted, focusing on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) . 2) Bulk: focus on large-scale agricultural reclamation group Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) and whole planting process service provider Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) . 3) Pets: pay attention to domestic substitutes for pet food Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk statement
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk, policy risk, industry competition and product risk
