Key investment points
The performance of 22q1 such as CXO, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical devices and vaccines is expected to grow high. We have predicted the revenue and profit of 49 pharmaceutical listed companies in the first quarter of 2022, of which 10 are expected to grow by more than 50%; There are 8 enterprises with a growth rate of 30% ~ 50%; There are 10 enterprises with a growth rate of 15% ~ 30%; There are 11 enterprises with a growth rate of 0% ~ 15%; There are two companies with year-on-year decline in net profit. By industry, CXO, devices, vaccines, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors are expected to achieve rapid growth in the first quarter.
Based on the analysis of the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks, we look forward to the performance of a single quarter. (1) the CXO sector maintains high growth, among which Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (expected revenue + 200% ~ 300% year-on-year), and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) 2022 is expected to grow by 150% ~ 200% year-on-year in the first quarter; (2) The overall expectation of the vaccine industry is good (excluding the revenue from covid-19 vaccine), the growth rate of Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (estimated revenue + 170% ~ 200%) is the largest, and the revenue of Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) estimated single quarter is + 110% ~ 120%, the revenue of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) estimated is + 52% ~ 57%, and the revenue of Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) estimated is + 43% ~ 59%. (3) The prosperity of the medical device industry is still on the rise. Among them, companies such as Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) (estimated revenue + 30% - 50% year-on-year), Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) (estimated revenue + 30% - 40% year-on-year), Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) estimated revenue (estimated revenue + 30% - 40%) and Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (estimated revenue + 30% - 50% year-on-year) have higher expected growth rate of 22q1 performance (more than 30%), and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) estimated revenue + 20% - 25% year-on-year. (4) The overall revenue growth of traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to be between 10% and 20%, of which Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) is expected to have the largest revenue growth (+ 17% ~ 30%), Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) revenue growth is expected to be + 15% ~ 20%. (5) The overall performance growth rate of pharmacy sector is expected to be between 10% ~ 20%, and the growth rates of Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) and Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) are expected to be 15% ~ 20% and 10% ~ 15% respectively. (6) In the self funded biopharmaceutical sector, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) (estimated revenue + 20% ~ 25% year-on-year) and Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) (estimated revenue + 15% ~ 25% year-on-year) increased by more than 15%.
In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the two main lines of "through medical insurance" and "epidemic desensitization": in the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we will focus on looking for "through medical insurance" and "epidemic desensitization" varieties.
1) medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the "medical insurance border" through "continuous innovation + internationalization"; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, self funded biological drugs, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables.
2) in the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of "desensitization" of the epidemic situation. A) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; b) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; c) The varieties of medical services that were damaged by the previous epidemic and recovered in demand in the future. In addition, with the gradual mitigation and normalization of the epidemic prevention and control measures, the demand for relevant substances that previously benefited from the epidemic (such as gloves, masks, covid-19 detection reagent, covid-19 vaccine, etc.) has fallen, and the performance still needs some time to digest and observe. There are still key directions in these fields in the next 2-3 years.
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
