Key investment points:
In February 2022, the automobile production / sales volume achieved a year-on-year increase of + 20.6% / + 18.7%. In February, China’s total automobile output was 1.81 million, a year-on-year increase of + 20.6%; Among them, the output of passenger cars was 1.53 million, a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%, and the output of commercial vehicles was 280000, a year-on-year increase of – 18.3%. In February, the total sales volume of automobiles was 1.74 million, a year-on-year increase of + 18.7%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 1.49 million, a year-on-year increase of + 27.8%, and the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 250000, a year-on-year increase of – 16.6%.
Among passenger cars, SUV contributed the largest increase in sales, and the year-on-year decline of commercial vehicles narrowed. Among passenger cars, the output of cars / SUVs in February reached 704 / 756000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 29.6% / 36.6%; The sales volume reached 687 / 734000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.5% / + 29.6%. In the current month, the production and sales of MPV reached 49000 / 52000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.0% / + 12.9% respectively; The production and sales of cross passenger models reached 26000 / 15000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.6% / – 9.5% respectively. In February, the production / sales volume of commercial vehicles reached 279 / 250000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of – 18.3% / – 16.6%, and the year-on-year decrease was narrowed by 9.7/8.5pcts respectively compared with January. In terms of specific classification, the year-on-year production / sales of freight cars was – 19.4% / – 17.8%, and the year-on-year production / sales of passenger cars was – 5.3% / – 3.6%.
In February, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high, reaching 19.2% / 21.6% respectively. In February 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5%; Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 321000, a year-on-year increase of + 195.0%; 13000 new energy commercial vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 251.3%. Among the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February, pure electric vehicles contributed 246000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 154.5%; Plug in hybrid vehicles contributed 75000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 338.6%, which has become a new driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle sales in the past two years. In February, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and new energy passenger vehicles reached a record high, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching 19.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7 PCTs; The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 21.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.4pcts. We expect that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.6 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of 24%.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 21.6%, the automotive industry changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla‘s domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
2. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM. It is recommended to recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , pay attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is lower than expected; The price of raw materials and freight continue to rise; The demand growth of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Subsidies for terminal price increases; The development progress of automobile intellectualization is less than expected; The high-end process of independent brands is blocked; The replacement progress of domestic parts is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The situation outside China is not completely comparable, and the relevant materials and data of the benchmarking are for reference only.
