Market review: from December 27 to December 31, 2021, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 1.47% as a whole, ranking 13th among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 1.09 percentage points over the same period. All segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry rose, with education, comprehensive services, hotel catering and tourism and leisure rising by 3.93%, 3.06%, 2.14% and 0.70% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. There were 47 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, of which the top five were The Great Wall Of Culture Group Holding Co.Ltd.Guangdong(300089) , Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , up 16.75%, 13.91%, 13.19%, 10.61% and 9.81% respectively. Seven companies achieved negative returns, of which the top five listed companies were Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , China Hi-Tech Group Co.Ltd(600730) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , Shenzhen Kingsun Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300235) , down 0.66%, 0.70%, 1.25%, 5.06% and 6.73% respectively. As of December 31, 2021, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 42.87 times, basically unchanged from last week and 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 38.37 times, 53.69 times, 55.35 times and 66.95 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of January 1, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 19673 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 2.841 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 11.8821 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 116.78 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 49.27%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 30.4104 million doses.
Important news: (1) in 2021, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 60.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84%. Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 50.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83%; The number of duty-free shoppers was 9.6766 million, a year-on-year increase of 73%; The number of duty-free purchases was 53.4925 million, a year-on-year increase of 71%. (2) Dai bin, President of China Tourism Research Institute, predicts that the number of inbound and outbound tourists will increase by 20% year-on-year in 2022 and return to about 25% in 2019.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, the valuation of the consumer service industry was basically flat month on month, but the reappearance of the scattered epidemic in Zhejiang led to the suspension of inter provincial tourism. Affected by the Winter Olympics and the local Chinese new year, the consumer service industry is under pressure in the short term, but in the long term, covid-19 pneumonia shows an influenza trend. The epidemic situation is controlled. It is expected to gradually increase with the promotion of vaccines and the listing of specific drugs. The restrictions on inbound and outbound tourism are expected to be initially relaxed in the second half of 2022. In terms of tax exemption, migratory bird tourists have driven the rapid recovery of the number of civil aviation flights in Hainan, and the peak tourism season in Hainan has come. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) with low current valuation due to the favorable consumption upgrading and consumption return in the medium and long term; Franchise stores account for a relatively high proportion, leading chain hotels with stable performance Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations are downward; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated epidemic situation; Global vaccination is less than expected.
