Key investment points
Overseas repeat: why does antigen self-test become the mainstream?
Since 2022, the Omicron mutant has been rampant, causing an explosive peak of the global epidemic. Under the severe epidemic situation, the demand for overseas covid-19 detection has overflowed. Under the promotion of policies, antigen detection products, especially self-test products, have been relied on and become the main force. At the same time, we provide a dimension for the later screening targets by reviewing the overseas market development experience and lessons of different enterprises. If the product has serious defects, it is easy to be rejected by the public. If the product has serious consequences, it is easy to be rejected by vid-19; In terms of market, countries with high approval threshold have a better competition pattern, which helps to maintain a high product profit margin; In addition, enterprises approved earlier can take advantage of the first mover advantage to obtain large orders during the outbreak of the epidemic and quickly occupy the market.
Chinese market: similarities and differences compared with overseas markets
Similar to overseas countries, the serious epidemic situation in Hong Kong forced the SAR government to start large-scale promotion of the application of covid-19 antigen rapid detection reagent, which in turn catalyzed the introduction of China’s antigen detection policy. However, we believe that there are significant differences between the Chinese market and overseas markets, which is reflected in the fact that the overall medical resources are still relatively abundant, the overall epidemic situation is still relatively good, and the overall epidemic prevention policy is still relatively strict. Based on this, we expect that the overflow detection demand at this stage may be mainly undertaken by the professional covid-19 antigen detection, and the application scenario of self-test may be limited before the trust problem is solved. Looking ahead, will the epidemic prevention policy be relaxed? Based on the academic research results, we believe that the current covid-19 epidemic is far from reaching the basis of “influenza” treatment. It is expected that China’s follow-up anti epidemic policy will continue to wrestle with the epidemic until the follow-up international epidemic improves or the popularization of specific drugs.
Market space: at present, it is about 15 billion, and the potential space is nearly 100 billion
Combined with our prediction of the overall epidemic situation & Epidemic Prevention Situation in China, we calculated the market space of covid-19 antigen detection products in China. Considering only the three scenarios in the plan, we estimate that under the neutral assumption, the market space for detection is about 5 billion yuan and the market space for reagents is about 10 billion yuan. However, we believe that the three scenarios in the plan fail to give full play to the advantages of antigen detection. With the implementation of follow-up policies, the following market space is expected to be opened later. Under the neutral assumption, the corresponding annual detection market space is about 62 billion yuan, and the reagent market space is about 38 billion yuan, with a total potential market space of nearly 100 billion yuan.
Investment target: first mover, performance, quality control, capacity and channel five-dimensional screening
There are five dimensions and five dimensions of the comprehensive first mover, performance, quality control, capacity and channels. Five dimensions and five dimensions of the five dimensions of comprehensive first mover, performance, quality control, capacity and channel. Five dimensions and five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of the five dimensions of comprehensive first mover, performance, performance, quality, quality, capacity and channels. We suggest to focus our attention on the following covid-19 antigen-19-19 antigen detection reagents: the Shenzhen V&T Technologies Co.Ltd(300484) 84848 Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) \ , Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300942) , etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, considering the limited liberalization of the current Chinese market, it is only recommended to focus on the directly related antigen protein targets: Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , Feipeng Biology (to be listed), etc.
Risk tips
Risk of policy falling short of expectations, product quality risk, market competition risk, etc.
