Market review. As of December 31, 2021, Shenwan’s basic chemical industry rose 3.18% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.80 percentage points and ranking ninth among Shenwan’s 28 industries.
For the seven sub sectors of Shenwan basic chemical industry, according to the performance of the recent week, the increase order is agrochemical products (+ 6.64%), rubber (+ 4.03%), chemicals (+ 3.14%), plastics (+ 3.11%), chemical fiber (+ 3.05%), non-metallic materials (+ 1.70%) and chemical raw materials (+ 0.64%). From the performance since the beginning of the month, agrochemical products have the largest increase (+ 7.00%), followed by rubber (+ 6.17%), chemical products (- 0.60%), chemical fiber (- 1.00%), plastics (- 1.63%), chemical raw materials (- 2.13%) and non-metallic materials (- 7.56%).
Among the stocks with the highest gains this week, Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605033) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) and Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) performed best, with gains of 52.89%, 43.95% and 30.27% respectively. Among the stocks with the highest decline this week, Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemical Co.Ltd(600078) , Shanghai Nar Industrial Co.Ltd(002825) and Zhejiang Unifull Industrial Fibre Co.Ltd(002427) performed the worst, with declines of – 19.79%, – 12.08% and – 10.72% respectively.
Rise and fall of chemical products: among the chemical products mainly tracked, the products with the top five price increases this week are potassium chloride (+ 9.4%), pure benzene (+ 5.7%), styrene (+ 5.62%), phenol (+ 5.50%), PX (+ 5.05%), and the products with the top five price decreases are refrigerant R134a (- 11.76%), yellow phosphorus (- 8.64%), acrylonitrile (- 8.16%), trichloroethylene (- 7.41%) Phosphorus pentoxide (- 6.98%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: in December, the agrochemical products sub sector led the rise, and its outlook remained at a high level, continuing to be optimistic about the pesticide sector. The tackling of air pollution control in autumn and winter and the Winter Olympic Games will exert pressure on the pesticide supply side, and the prices of some pesticide products are expected to remain strong. In addition, the fundamentals of the downstream tire and modified plastics industry are expected to improve marginally in 2022, so it is recommended to pay attention. Meanwhile, next year’s performance growth is highly certain, and the sweetener leader Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with reasonable current valuation can continue to pay attention. In addition, under the dual carbon target, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the upstream chemical materials of new energy with high demand certainty, such as PVDF, photovoltaic EVA particles, etc. Key target concerns:
Pesticide: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (600486)
Tires: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (601966), Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) (002984), and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (601058)
Modified plastics: Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) (600143), Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) (002324)
Sweetener: Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
PVDF： Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) （300343）
PV EVA: Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301), Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) (003022)
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Product price and price difference fall; Intensified industry competition, etc.
