Mortgage loans grew negatively for the first time, and the promotion of real estate enterprises continued to weaken. This week, the central bank released a social finance statistical report. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, with negative growth for the first time. Meanwhile, Kerui data show that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February decreased by more than 43% year-on-year. We believe that the sharp weakening of mortgage loans, on the one hand, is affected by the Spring Festival effect, and the number of sales days in a single month has decreased significantly. The implementation of local relaxation policies has a certain time lag effect, and the recovery of market confidence still needs time. On the other hand, in February, the promotion sales ratio of key cities fell to 0.43, which was the lowest point after the epidemic. The cold land market combined with the depression of the market reduced the promotion ability and willingness of real estate enterprises, resulting in a sharp decline in the promotion volume at the beginning of the year.
At present, the general tone of non speculation and three stability in housing and housing has not changed. At present, the national housing prices continue to weaken month on month, and the confidence of local demand side is insufficient. We believe that the goal of “three stabilities” has gradually shifted from controlling housing prices at the upper limit to maintaining growth at the lower limit. Under the framework of urban policy implementation, the local government upgraded the demand side support policy to the reduction of the down payment ratio of commercial loans and the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions, which all sent a positive signal of good expectations to the market. At the same time, the current increase level of mortgage interest rate is high, and there is more room for the reduction of real interest rate. At present, the market is still at the bottom stage. We judge that the effective implementation of the combined boxing policy is expected to make the industry usher in the bottom recovery of growth rate at the end of the second quarter.
Investment strategy: broad credit background + policy deregulation, alpha beta. In the context of steady growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step, non hot cities will break the shackles of over regulation, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
