Key investment points:
Baijiu Baijiu: 1-2 months, the performance is beautiful, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) marketing side started to exert power, and the performance of liquor increased obviously. This week's 1-2 month report shows that Baijiu company's good start is promising to boost market confidence. For high-end Baijiu, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 12 revenue and profit grew by double 20%, exceeding the market expectation. It is expected to be mainly: (1) the contribution of non-standard products to raise prices; in March, 21 years, the price of Moutai customized products was raised, and the Moutai and Moutai year wines were raised for 15 years. ② The volume and price of the series of liquor increased simultaneously, and the market launch of Maotai 1935 increased. Fen Baijiu 1-2 month revenue growth of more than 35%, profit growth of more than 50%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 12 month revenue growth of 120%, profit growth of about 130%, Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) 12 month revenue grew 25%, or profit growth of 26% over the same period, the second highest mainstream brand launched a good start, laying the foundation for the growth of the year, to a certain extent, alleviate the market for liquor cycle weakening concerns. Follow up into Baijiu consumption season, the market price as the core point of view, at this time, the price of Pu five is particularly important, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) new management has settled, recently began the implementation of marketing strategy, continue to strengthen the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) "1+3" product matrix, strengthen Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou series wine dual wheel drive, Pu five and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dual wheel drive. From the perspective of recent strategy publicity, price control has been put in a better position. The main brand takes puwu as the core, controls the quantity and supports the price, strengthens the value control and atmosphere creation of cultural and creative products, realizes increment, restores channel profits, boosts channel confidence, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) optimizes quota control, creates group purchase direct sales channels and forms effective circle marketing. The price rise of general five is expected to boost the overall price of Baijiu and drive the recovery of confidence in channels and funds. Meanwhile, the stabilization and recovery of the external environment is also of great significance for the stable and pick-up of the basic baijiu. We should focus on Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Laojiao, and offensive and defensive products at the current time, Baijiu, and the high-end liquor brands.
Beer: the marginal impact of aluminum cost rise is limited, and we are actively optimistic about the transmission of price increase before the peak season. The recent sharp rise in aluminum prices under the influence of geopolitics has triggered concerns about the pressure on beer costs. From the cost side, the beer industry has basically completed the annual / semi annual price locking of barley, and the price locking of packaging materials such as glass bottles and aluminum cans for about 1-2 quarters. From the semi annual dimension, the sharp rise in aluminum prices will not have a great impact on the cost side in the short term. From the marginal slope, glass bottles account for a large proportion of the cost of raw materials, and the price of glass bottles has fallen to a low level. Aluminum accounts for about 10% - 15% of the cost of raw materials (depending on the canning rate of different enterprises). It is estimated that the upward pressure on the cost in 22 years will be slower than that in 21 years. From the perspective of sales volume, the impact of the epidemic in 22 years has passivated the beer consumption scene day by day. The sales volume from January to February of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 22 exceeded the expectation for two consecutive months. It is expected that the Q1 sales volume of the whole industry will still perform well on the high basis of last year. From the perspective of ton price, major beer enterprises in 21h2 announced price increases, and the price increase effect is expected to be reflected in 22q2. In the whole year of 22, we are still optimistic about the rise of gross profit margin under the smooth conduction of price increase. From the perspective of high-end, China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) has set relatively high growth requirements for the sales volume of more than 8 yuan, and the high-end trend of beer is expected to be further strengthened in 22 years. On the whole, we believe that the beer industry is expected to continue to enjoy the price increase dividend in 22 years. The ton price of the industry will increase by about 5% - 7%, and the marginal upward slope of ton cost will slow down, which is expected to be about 3% - 4%. Before the peak season in April, we should actively look forward to the layout opportunities of the beer sector.
Condiment: the pressure of demand cost is still on. Watch the trend of the epidemic and the implementation of price increase, and watch for long-term recovery. Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation is disturbed repeatedly, the price of soybean raw materials may be difficult to fall, and the pressure of demand and cost needs to be released. However, with the de inventory of channels, the impact of superimposed community group purchase has weakened, and the industry is expected to show a weak recovery. At the current time point, the suppression of condiment fundamentals in this round of epidemic may be the main factor, including the suppression of consumption demand at the catering end and the suppression of consumption power at the residents' end. It may be difficult to substantially improve the condiment demand under the epidemic; In addition, it is necessary to continuously track the price increase landing and channel inventory. In terms of price increase, Haitian has made good progress in price increase. Terminal price support has been basically completed in some regions before the Spring Festival, and the transmission in some regions is relatively slow, so it is necessary to wait for the follow-up implementation of price support. Due to the late price increase window of other brands, it is expected that the transmission of the price system is still in progress. Taking Zhongju as an example, the company provided the transition of original price goods before the year, carried out price support after the year, and is expected to complete the transmission from April to May. In terms of inventory, some companies took the initiative to remove inventory in 2021. Before the price increase, the industry inventory has tended to be benign. In the follow-up, under the influence of the price increase policy and Spring Festival stock preparation, it is normal for the inventory to rise. After the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are expected to gradually fall back to a benign level. In terms of valuation, the valuation level of condiments is still high, which we believe contains the expectation of epidemic repair. The epidemic will eventually end, the negative impact does not have long-term sustainability, and it is difficult for the condiment industry to have a large impact similar to that brought by 2021h1 community group purchase. The general trend is to repair the fundamentals.
Snack food: the disclosure season of the annual report has arrived, focusing on the recovery of high-quality leading performance. The recent epidemic situation in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption, and the sector is still under pressure in the short term. However, since 21q3, companies in the leisure food sector have actively adjusted the investment of products, channels and expenses in response to the pressure of rising costs, fragmented channels and weak terminal consumption, and have achieved preliminary results. The performance disclosure period of 2021 annual report has expired, and the performance of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) performance forecast is outstanding. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance improvement of leisure food leaders.
Frozen baking: focus on cost pressure and build safety margin through stock price correction. Palm oil prices rise, and the price trend of raw materials in the later stage deserves attention, which may affect the profit performance of the company. We believe that the 22-year high production capacity will gradually get rid of the constraints of supply and sales; On the channel side, except Sam, the company will conduct diversified layout in baking and catering channels; On the product side, there is still great room for improvement in cassava and frozen cake; The price increase on the profit side can hedge the pressure of rising costs.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu sector: the value of high-end liquor is obvious, the secondary high-end is still in the upward cycle, adhere to the growth leader, the real estate Baijiu benefited from epidemic situation, and focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) / Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . Beer sector: high end continues to accelerate, short-term sales fluctuations do not change the upward trend of performance, focusing on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / China Resources beer, etc. Condiment sector: focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) / Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) , etc. Dairy products sector: focus on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) / New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) / Mengniu Dairy industry, etc. Snack food sector: we should still focus on the main line of growth, pay attention to channel driven, and focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) / Zhou black duck / Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , etc. Frozen baking sector: under the background of rising labor costs and store rents, catalytic frozen baking dough is widely used, and the track is booming, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) / Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) / Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc. Special liquor and beverage sector: pre mixed liquor and energy drinks are good tracks in Changpo, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (improved quarterly) / Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (exceeding the expectation in the annual report), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety issues; Intensified market competition; The price increase was less than expected
